A possible settlement between Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and Deputy Chief Minister DK Shivakumar has emerged, signalling a calmer phase in the leadership tussle within the state Congress. While the final decision rests with the party leadership in Delhi, details of the so-called “compromise formula” are gradually becoming clearer.
Breakfast diplomacy calms tensions
After weeks of speculation over friction between the two top leaders, Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar met over breakfast today. The meeting, aimed at projecting unity, served as a symbolic reset after their strained ties over the chief ministership question.
Analysts believe the optics were crucial — the Congress successfully avoided a public showdown by diffusing tensions before they escalated further.
A transition of power likely, say analysts
According to political observers, the compromise indicates a strong possibility of Shivakumar taking over as Chief Minister in a smooth transition, potentially as early as March–April 2026.
For now, sources say the arrangement requires Shivakumar to continue as Deputy Chief Minister without pushing for immediate change.
In return, the formula reportedly includes more cabinet positions for leaders loyal to Shivakumar and continuation of his role as the state Congress chief. Siddaramaiah is also expected to back Shivakumar as the party’s face for the 2028 Assembly election.
Why the Congress prefers this route
Replacing Siddaramaiah abruptly would not only upset internal balance but could also weaken the party, given his stature and mass appeal. Shivakumar, despite his influence, does not have the numbers within the legislature to force a takeover, making compromise the most viable path.
Siddaramaiah has already stated that this will be his final term as Chief Minister. With his legacy secure and his position as one of Karnataka’s tallest leaders intact, he appears willing to enable a dignified transition when the time comes.
Variables that could shape the final outcome
The success of the formula depends on three key factors:
1. Trust between the two leaders
Whether Shivakumar believes Siddaramaiah will keep his word remains uncertain. Karnataka’s political history is full of last-minute shifts, giving rise to the phrase “natak in Karnataka”.
2. Decision-making by the Congress high command
Delhi’s leadership must ensure the transition happens on time and without internal resistance, especially in the run-up to the 2028 Assembly polls.
3. Caste equations and political alignment
Siddaramaiah is the strongest face of the AHINDA bloc, while Shivakumar represents the OBC Vokkaliga community. The Congress cannot afford to alienate either group, making the timing and execution of any transition extremely delicate.
