We’re racing quick in the direction of the tip of the UEFA Champions League league section, and the scramble for positions is absolutely beginning to warmth up.
Arsenal sit fairly atop the standings with an unblemished document after crusing previous Internazionale however under that? That’s the place it actually will get attention-grabbing.
Tottenham Hotspur are in a gravity-defying fifth spot, whereas Manchester City’s shock loss to Bodø/Glimt leaves them out of the Top 8. Then there are some huge golf equipment — hey Napoli — in peril of being eradicated fully.
With only one spherical of matches left for groups on the bubble to punch their tickets to the knockout section, learn on as ESPN consultants Rob Dawson, Sam Tighe, Julien Laurens and Gab Marcotti supply their ideas on Matchday 7.
– View the total UEFA Champions League desk
– How every workforce can qualify for 2025-26 Champions League knockouts
– Lindop: If Liverpool need to achieve success, all roads lead via Szoboszlai
Q1. OK, with one recreation left to advance, which membership faces the largest do-or-die fixture in MD8 contemplating the desk?
Laurens: As we stated final yr, one of many nice issues about this new Champions League format with a 36-team league section is that it ought to give us a terrific MD8 yearly, with suspense, jeopardy, attractive permutations and so much at stake. It was the case final yr, and it will likely be the identical once more subsequent week. And for me, the largest do-or-die fixture is indisputably Napoli vs. Chelsea.
Pitting Antonio Conte and the Italian champions towards his former membership for a spot within the knockout playoffs, it could be a humiliation for Scott McTominay & Co. to complete exterior of the Top 24. An absolute shame. They have 90 minutes to play and three factors wanted, or they would be the laughingstock of European soccer. Equally, the Blues can even want one thing from the sport to ensure a Top 8 end and keep away from the additional two video games that they’d have in the event that they have been dropped into the playoff spherical. The Diego Maradona Stadium will probably be stuffed with stress and strain, particularly for the house aspect.
Another factor to recollect: When the brand new format of the competitors was introduced, many stated that it could be boring as a result of with 24 groups to undergo, all the massive golf equipment would make it. Not positive about that this yr…
Tighe: Paris Saint-Germain and Newcastle United are sixth and seventh within the desk after seven video games. They share the fourth-best objective distinction within the competitors to this point (+10) and are successfully sitting fairly. But they play one another on the ultimate matchday, in Paris, and the fact is that the loser will get dumped into the playoffs. If they draw, they will in all probability each slip in — Chelsea, Barcelona, and Manchester City are simply a few of the groups that would leapfrog them in that scenario.
Now, as final season proves, slipping down into that playoff mire is not essentially terminal: PSG did so, beat Brest 10-0 on combination and used it as a bounceboard to go on and win the entire thing.
But including video games to the schedule isn’t an excellent plan, and for Newcastle particularly, it might show actually damaging to their capability to handle the load.
3:03
Do groups perceive play towards PSG now?
The ESPN ‘FC TV’ crew react to Sporting CP’s 2-1 victory of Paris Saint Germain within the UEFA Champions League.
Marcotti: It’s hardly do-or-die for City, PSG or Newcastle, is it? More like do or play an extra two matches. Boo-hoo. My coronary heart bleeds for you. So, I’m going to decide on Jose Mourinho’s Benfica vs. Real Madrid (heck, it could be the final time we get to speak about him in a Champions League contest this season). Mourinho’s aspect have been crushed at Juventus, however it may need been a special story if not for Vangelis Pavlidis’ slipping when taking his penalty and falling on his bottom?
The upshot? They want a bunch of different outcomes to go their manner AND they should win within the Bernabéu. No matter. Mourinho gained many occasions on the Bernabéu earlier than (OK, principally whereas managing Real Madrid, however nonetheless…) and, towards this star-crossed model of Madrid, who’s to say he cannot summon up sufficient of the outdated black magic to spring the unbelievable, if not the unattainable?
Dawson: Man City vs. Galatasaray. City will make it to the knockout rounds no matter occurs, however they will have dangerous reminiscences of what can occur when you do not end within the Top 8. Last season, they have been compelled right into a playoff with Real Madrid and have been comfortably dumped out. Pep Guardiola will not need to threat a repeat.
They ought to beat Galatasaray on the Etihad, however then they need to have crushed Bayer Leverkusen and Bodø/Glimt. Marc Guéhi is more likely to are available for his City debut towards Wolverhampton Wanderers within the Premier League on Saturday. However, the England defender will not be eligible to face Galatasaray and with Josko Gvardiol and Rúben Dias nonetheless sidelined, it is more likely to imply Guardiola must return to Abdukodir Khusanov and Max Alleyne at heart again. It was a nervy time for City towards Club Brugge on Matchday 8 final season and it could be once more towards Galatasaray.
Q2. Speaking of Manchester City, they appear to be imploding on a number of fronts, dropping floor to Arsenal within the Premier League and taking a weakened aspect to the Arctic Circle in MD7 the place they have been comprehensively crushed by Bodø/Glimt. Antoine Semenyo and Guéhi have arrived to strengthen issues, however is that sufficient for Guardiola to work his manner out of this jam?
Tighe: It was frankly astonishing to look at Man City minimize to ribbons by Bodø/Glimt. They regarded like scoring each time they attacked — a well-worn cliché, however on this event completely true. The floor is synthetic and the climate surprising, positive, however the whole membership operates on a price range price about one tenth of Erling Haaland’s market worth alone.
Most regarding of all was the horror efficiency of Rodri, who was bypassed time and again in midfield, finally main him to commit two yellow-card challenges within the area of a minute. Neither Guéhi or Semenyo can repair that specific space of the pitch, though the previous might convey more organisation to a line of defense that presently lacks it, and can’t at all times depend on what’s in entrance of them to dam the worst of it. Semenyo’s work charge and urgent might additionally assist, however he cannot assist in Europe till February on the earliest.
Dawson: Man City aren’t enjoying properly, however Guardiola will not be panicking simply but. The workforce is in a troublesome second after poor performances towards Manchester United and Bodø/Glimt. They’re damaging defeats for various causes, however the issues aren’t terminal.
Guardiola has been compelled into pairing Khusanov and Alleyne at heart again within the absence of Gvardiol and Dias. Alleyne was enjoying within the Championship as lately as New Year’s Day; to that finish, Guéhi solves an enormous situation and Dias will probably be again quickly. Rodri’s type is troublesome, however Nico González has been a lot better this season and should not be too distant from making his return from damage.
Despite dropping in Norway, City are nonetheless going to achieve the knockout rounds of the Champions League, are well-positioned to achieve the Carabao Cup remaining, have a comparatively gentle FA Cup fourth tie towards Salford City and are nonetheless nearly within the Premier League title race. Yes, it appears to be like dangerous on paper, however it’s nonetheless far too early to write down them off.
2:05
Burnley: Why are the Man City gamers refunding the followers?
ESPN’s Craig Burley would not consider the Manchester City gamers needs to be refunding the followers after their 3-1 defeat to Bodø/Glimt within the UEFA Champions League.
Laurens: After what we noticed towards Man United on Saturday, there was no actual shock to see City struggling even more within the grueling Arctic Circle circumstances, on a plastic pitch, and towards an excellent workforce a lot brisker than them: Bodø/Glimt’s final official recreation was six weeks in the past.
Guardiola is clearly conscious of his workforce’s present points and there are lots of, from Rodri’s disastrous type, accidents all over the place, Phil Foden’s disappearance, Haaland’s worst profession type (one objective on penalty in his final eight video games in all competitions), and a far too passive press mixed with a foolish excessive line of defense. Plus there’s the collective battle to defend in transition, an growing older Bernardo Silva (he was suspended on Tuesday), and an important imbalance tactically!
Good luck to Pep in attempting to kind out all of these issues. This is as dangerous a Man City workforce as now we have seen since … October 2024, the final time they endured such a irritating run of type.
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Marcotti: Rob is right that Pep will not be panicking (weirdly, panicking hardly ever helps) and that the scenario continues to be open (sure, they’ll nonetheless win the Quadruple … although I would not wager the mortgage on it). But the problems are evident and, as Juls writes, transcend the Bodø/Glimt defeat, which was a basic “trap” recreation.
Guéhi helps as a result of he is in all probability higher than any central defender on City’s books (besides Gvardiol, possibly), however it nonetheless means hitting the bottom operating by transferring from a back-three to a back-four in mid-season. That’s not at all times straightforward to do, particularly in a congested schedule. Semenyo is a reside physique who does many issues properly, although I’m unsure he strikes the needle right away. And then there’s the elephant (OK, giant Norwegian) within the room and his poor type.
To me the largest situation is tactical and one in all id. If, because the in-the-knows inform me, former Liverpool assistant coach Pep Lijnders was introduced in to assist the opposite Pep flip this into more of a press-oriented aspect, I believe it is truthful to query what they have been doing since coaching camp. A month in the past, the Athletic ranked Premier League groups by PPDA (passes per defensive motion) which is a measure of urgent depth. City have been sixteenth, sandwiched between Everton and Burnley. It feels to me they have not absolutely embraced the urgent id but in addition aren’t fairly prepared to return to being a purely possession aspect that makes their superior expertise win video games. That’s one thing Guardiola must kind out in coaching.
Q3. Barça maintain leaking targets — six of their final 4 video games, together with two dangerous concessions at Slavia Prague — whereas Madrid’s followers continued to voice their displeasure at Vinícius Júnior and Jude Bellingham regardless of the massive win over AS Monaco. Which Spanish workforce is best-placed to win it or make the deepest run?
Marcotti: It could seem counterintuitive since Barcelona got here inside a whisker of reaching the ultimate final season and Real Madrid have changed their supervisor and are a little bit of a dumpster hearth when it comes to morale, however I’m choosing Madrid right here. And, no, it isn’t due to the massive win over Monaco (who got here into the sport having misplaced seven of their final eight). Rather as a result of they’ve the important thing elements for Champions League success. An excellent goalkeeper in Thibaut Courtois, an excellent goalscorer in Kylian Mbappé and, after all, the burden of historical past.
Experience issues and so does having guys who’ve been there and performed that. There’s not a lot separating the 2, to be trustworthy. But I am unable to get previous Barcelona’s defensive foibles. In previous video games it was the excessive line or simply randomly dropping opponents within the field (like on the weekend towards Real Sociedad) this time, within the 4-2 win over Slavia, it was set items. Yes, Joan García can stand on his head, and, sure, Lamine Yamal and Raphinha can carry you, however because the competitors wears on, you possibly can’t simply rely on scoring three or 4 after recognizing the opposition a few targets.
Dawson: It’s at all times arduous to look past Real Madrid within the Champions League. Even in a turbulent season you would not wager towards them. The LaLiga title will probably be determined by consistency. The Champions League is totally different. More so than in home video games, European knockout ties are determined by moments. And the one factor Real Madrid have is huge gamers who can create magic in huge moments.
It’s to not say that Barcelona do not have good gamers — after all they do. But there are tight and tense video games within the latter rounds of the Champions League and typically you are left needing a objective out of nothing. Real Madrid have more of that sort of participant than every other workforce in Europe, which is maybe why they’ve had such a profitable historical past within the competitors.
1:25
Can Barcelona cope if Pedri’s damage is long run?
The ESPN ‘FC TV’ crew react to Pedri coming off injured in Barcelona’s 4-2 victory over Slavia Prague within the UEFA Champions League.
Laurens: Barcelona for me. Their attacking powers are so good that they’ll actually beat anybody on their day, whereas I do not suppose it is the case for Real Madrid. With the ball, this Barça workforce is so a lot better collectively than the Merengues. Of course, the defensive fragility and the excessive line make them weak, particularly in transitions however I nonetheless wouldn’t need to face them within the knockout phases. They discover more steadiness going ahead as properly, particularly if they’ve learnt from their errors from final season.
Tighe: I actually need to keep true to my preseason Champions League winner choose in Barcelona, making this a 2-2 break up between us … however I am unable to do it. I’m simply too spooked by Pedri’s hamstrings! He pulled up once more on Matchday 7, which is horrible information contemplating Barça could must win subsequent week to safe a Top 8 spot.
Watching this workforce with and with out Pedri supplies two utterly totally different experiences. With him? they’ll beat anybody. Without him? They might really lose to only about anybody. If his health was assured, I’d be capable of look previous the defensive foibles that Gab mentions — however mixed? It’s this competitors’s outdated greatest pal, Real Madrid, who get the nod.
This autumn. Five English groups are within the Top 8, and that could possibly be six by the tip of the league section. Is that an issue for UEFA? Is the Premier League’s dominance right here to remain?
Dawson: Based purely on revenues, wage payments and switch spending, the Champions League desk appears to be like the best way it needs to be. The Super League exists, it simply goes by a special identify. It’s not at all times adopted that Premier League golf equipment have been ready to make use of their monetary would possibly to dominate in Europe. English golf equipment have gained far fewer Champions League titles during the last 15 years than they need to have performed.
That stated, probably having six Premier League golf equipment within the Champions League Top 8 is not nice for the competitors. The complete level of the event is pitting golf equipment from totally different international locations towards one another. It can be a disgrace if, for instance, it was an all-English lineup within the semifinals. If you need to watch that, you possibly can see one thing related proper now with Manchester City, Newcastle, Arsenal and Chelsea going through off in two-legged ties to achieve the Carabao Cup remaining.
Marcotti: Let’s go away the broad, over-arching conclusions as soon as the league is over, we could? Newcastle journey to PSG, who will probably be extremely motivated, Tottenham go to Eintracht Frankfurt, who’re a pile of turds proper now, however hey, it is Spurs (and, more critically they’ve greater fish to fry). Man City? I think about they will win at house to Galatasaray and be simply superb, however who is aware of? And earlier than we get carried away, let’s additionally remind ourselves that three of the six Premier League groups (Newcastle, Chelsea and Manchester City) have as many factors as Sporting CP and Atalanta, we could?
But yeah, we do not want the Champions League desk to inform us that the Premier League is the most effective league on the planet. And whereas it could appear as if it is a poor season domestically as a result of everyone is to this point behind Arsenal within the English desk, it is also right down to such a factor as energy in depth. As Rob factors out, when you have got more sources and more cash than most and if you play robust, well-prepared (and well-resourced) opponents each week it’s going to make you higher.
2:54
Do Arsenal have the most effective squad in Europe?
The ESPN ‘FC TV’ crew react to Arsenal’s 3-1 victory over Inter Milan within the UEFA Champions League.
Laurens: Surely no person is stunned by this! Even if when the Premier League was having a median season, English golf equipment are nonetheless by far the most effective and strongest golf equipment in Europe. All six of them within the Top 8 actually, if Manchester City weren’t in every single place. As thrilling as MD8 will probably be subsequent week, this has not an excellent Champions League marketing campaign to this point both. The stage has not been nice, which has additionally helped the English golf equipment to say even more their domination. How far might they go? Could now we have all six within the final 16? What about six out of eight within the quarterfinals in the event that they keep away from one another within the earlier spherical? Four in 4 within the semis? An all-English remaining? Let’s see how dominant they’ll and will probably be.
Tighe: Clearly, as the fellows level out, a league’s energy is usually linked to its spending energy, and the Premier League blows everybody else out of the water. Perhaps the one factor that may journey the six English groups up is the truth that their week-to-week is so troublesome and so draining (as the extent of the Tenth- or Fifteenth-placed membership is seemingly so excessive) that it burns them out earlier than season’s finish.
It’s properly documented that Newcastle battle to keep up their depth all the best way till May, and naturally each Chelsea and Manchester City competed deep into the Club World Cup final summer time, probably paving the best way for them to fall flat bodily earlier than the marketing campaign ends (are we seeing indicators of that already? I believe the reply is sure).
Even the stacked squad Arsenal have constructed might conceivably battle to go all the best way in 4 competitions. Who is aware of what the following few months has in retailer?
And lastly, just a little look-in at Liverpool. Mohamed Salah has returned to the first-team squad after the Africa Cup of Nations — after his incendiary interview that made us all suppose he was leaving the membership this winter — and the Reds picked up a 3-0 win at Marseille, however is there adequate trigger for celebration? And the place does Salah — who had 28 touches in a reasonably quiet 90 minutes — match on this workforce each this season and past?
Marcotti: First of all “made us all think he was leaving the club this winter”? Speak for your self! It can nonetheless occur, the window is open for one more 10 days, however it’s humorous how these zillionaire Saudi gives appear to be taken as a right, eh? I stated on the time I wasn’t satisfied he’d go away and, clearly, with Alexander Isak injured, I’m much less satisfied now.
As talked about, there are 10 days left within the window, but when Salah’s thoughts was made up, he would not have began on Wednesday and Liverpool can be bringing in a alternative. If Salah would not go away, the Reds cannot add anybody to the squad so, merely put, Arne Slot has to make it work. And I believe he’ll strive. Salah performed 90 minutes in a special continent on Sunday and 90 minutes once more towards Marseille. To me that claims Slot will discover a technique to make it work and, personally, I believe this model of 4-box-2 (or no matter you need to name it) might be an efficient manner of utilizing him (as I’ve argued earlier than). It may not be with Salah beginning each recreation, however he’ll be within the combine.
Dawson: It appears to be like from the surface like an uneasy truce. Salah’s break at AFCON appears to have taken the sting out of the scenario, which is sweet information for Slot within the short-term. Still, it’s going to simmer underneath the floor for the remainder of the season. For no matter purpose, Salah is not as efficient as he was final marketing campaign, which suggests he is susceptible to being dropped for extended durations. It’s very true whereas Slot tries to discover a method to convey some consistency again to performances and outcomes.
It definitely seems like the start of the tip of Salah’s profession at Anfield. Slot can solely handle the scenario as greatest he can till the summer time when Salah might be moved on. Salah is not a daily any more so, at occasions, it may get awkward for the Dutchman, however he has to place the workforce first.
1:55
Was Liverpool’s victory vs. Marseille their greatest efficiency of the season?
The ESPN ‘FC TV’ crew react to Liverpool’s dominant 3-0 victory over Marseille within the UEFA Champions League.
Tighe: My overriding feeling watching that recreation was that that is not “Salah’s team.” Even through the nice Sadio Mané and Roberto Firmino period, it was nonetheless his; he was nonetheless the principle man. But now it is totally different. All season, Dominik Szoboszlai has been digging this workforce out of assorted sized holes, and Hugo Ekitike has constantly impressed together with his general play. All the nice moments on this genuinely wonderful win on the Vélodrome revolved across the Hungarian. He pulled rank and took the free kick that snuck underneath the wall and gave Liverpool the lead, and it was his unbelievable first-time flick that opened up the passage for the third objective.
In the tip, we would look again on issues and contemplate it considerably wholesome that the Reds weaned themselves off Salah whereas he was nonetheless in situ — fairly than him abruptly departing final summer time — however whether or not it is well worth the drama that is unfolded within the course of, I’m not so positive.
Laurens: I do not suppose Salah suits on this workforce anymore. I used to be on the Vélodrome on Wednesday, and he could as properly not have performed. He missed an enormous likelihood, one which he would have by no means squandered earlier than, by making the incorrect determination and he did not convey a lot to the workforce in any respect in or out of possession.
In this new Liverpool the place management is essential with the 4 midfielders: Florian Wirtz, Alexis Mac Allister, Ryan Gravenberch and Szoboszlai — there isn’t any room for him actually. Slot could as properly have performed Curtis Jones or Cody Gakpo as an alternative of Salah. The Liverpool boss would possibly give him one other likelihood in Premier League towards AFC Bournemouth on the weekend however, towards a poor Marseille aspect, we did not see sufficient from the Egyptian to have earned it.
