Nine years without a Steelers playoff win and the quiet cost of never losing enough in Pittsburgh

You might need heard this: Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season in 19 years in Pittsburgh. As spectacular as that’s, it additionally performed a nontrivial function in the Steelers’ final playoff win coming some 3,300 days in the past. Tomlin’s biggest power — never bottoming out — grew to become the Steelers’ biggest long-term weak point as soon as Ben Roethlisberger was gone.

This in no manner diminishes what Tomlin achieved; in reality, it additional highlights how persistently good — and usually nice — he was at getting the most out of his groups, 12 months after 12 months after 12 months. But that consistency solely labored in the common season, while you had 16 or 17 video games to search out a path to profitable greater than you misplaced.

Everything goes out the window in a single-elimination postseason, the place the legislation of averages is simply phrases, and for those who’re not at your greatest, you are headed dwelling. “At your best” can imply a lot of issues, nevertheless it begins and ends with one reality: If you do not have a franchise quarterback, nothing else actually issues.

Consider the Steelers’ postseason file throughout Tomlin’s tenure:

• From 2007-16: 8-6, with an AFC title and a Super Bowl
• From 2017-25: 0-6

The greatest cause for the win-loss discrepancy? A franchise quarterback.

The Steelers drafted Ben Roethlisberger eleventh general in 2004, and over the subsequent 18 seasons, he led the workforce to 3 Super Bowls, two Super Bowl titles and a 13-10 postseason file. Roethlisberger retired after the 2021 season, and Pittsburgh made the playoffs simply thrice from 2017-21.

Big Ben suffered an elbow damage that knocked him out for nearly all of the 2019 season. (That workforce, miraculously, went 8-8 with Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges, which by itself ought to have made Tomlin the unanimous choose for Coach of the Year. Instead, John Harbaugh gained the award after main the Ravens to a 14-2 mark.) Roethlisberger performed two extra seasons and was never fairly the identical.

From 2022-25, listed below are the quarterbacks who’ve began video games for the Steelers:

A quick historical past of how we acquired right here:

2022

The Steelers over-drafted Kenny Pickett twentieth general and signed former Bears second-overall choose Mitchell Trubisky to start out the season. Trubisky confirmed he’s greatest fitted to a backup function, and whereas Pickett had his moments as a rookie, it took a company that preaches endurance simply two years to commerce him to Philadelphia and go in one other course.

2024

That course included rolling the cube on two veterans at completely different factors in their careers. Sean Payton made it clear Russell Wilson was not half of his long-term imaginative and prescient in Denver, and the Steelers had been in a position to signal him to a one-year veteran deal. It was a no-brainer. 

They additionally traded for Justin Fields, one other Bears first-rounder whose time in Chicago ended after the workforce drafted Caleb Williams. Pittsburgh acquired Fields, who was in the remaining 12 months of his rookie deal, for what grew to become a conditional sixth-round choose. The strikes had been defensible — and that was the drawback. Each one postponed the identical query without ever answering it.

The outcomes had been promising early. With Fields beginning whereas Wilson was injured, the Steelers opened the season 6-2, largely on the power of a stable protection and one or two massive offensive performs per sport. It was enjoyable, nevertheless it wasn’t sustainable. Wilson offered a regular veteran presence when he returned to the lineup, however each he and Fields regressed to their earlier type. Pittsburgh misplaced 4 straight video games to finish the common season earlier than one other predictable first-round playoff loss.

2025

The Steelers let Russell Wilson stroll, and he signed with the Giants. The Jets signed Justin Fields, and whereas Pittsburgh reportedly explored a commerce for Matthew Stafford — who in the end remained with the Rams — the workforce turned to 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers, one other short-term repair for a long-term drawback, a technique that had already failed — repeatedly.

How Pittsburgh acquired right here

The outcomes had been predictable: enough vivid spots to make watching the Steelers enjoyable, a 2-5 stretch in the center of the season to remind everybody of the evident holes on the roster, and one other playoff loss. This time, nevertheless, Tomlin, a future Hall of Famer, squeezed most worth out of rosters that had no margin for error as soon as January arrived.

Tomlin’s success wasn’t a flaw — it simply grew to become a structural constraint as soon as the quarterback pipeline dried up. Because of it, from 2007-25, the workforce never picked decrease than 14th general, routinely chosen in the 20s or later (13 instances) and used only one first-round choose on a quarterback: Kenny Pickett in 2022. In reality, their common draft place over that span was twenty second.

The Steelers twice traded up — shifting from seventeenth to 14th to get Jones in 2023, and leaping 10 spots to No. 10 general in 2019 to take linebacker Devin Bush. The one 12 months Pittsburgh did not have a first-round choose got here in 2020, when that choice went to the Dolphins as half of the Minkah Fitzpatrick commerce, which turned out to be a enormous success.

It’s unusual to say that every one of Pittsburgh’s regular-season success got here at a cost, however bear in mind: The final time the workforce had a losing file, going 6-10 in 2003, it drafted Roethlisberger, who modified the trajectory of the franchise.

For the Steelers, this wasn’t a refusal to draft quarterbacks — it was a refusal to ever be unhealthy enough to realistically entry one.

When you have a look at the groups exterior Pittsburgh that certified for the postseason in 2025, 4 final had a losing file in 2023, three in 2022, two every in 2021 and 2020, and the solely workforce whose final losing season got here in 2018 was additionally the one which traded up 5 spots to take Josh Allen No. 7 general in that 12 months’s draft.

The level: Sometimes you need to backside out to get your franchise quarterback. That’s to not say the Steelers ought to tank — none of the groups in the playoffs did — however there’s additionally one thing virtually unnatural about almost twenty years of nonstop profitable in the NFL. Once the franchise quarterback who acquired you there hangs it up, you are out of the blue susceptible to each different workforce that now has one.

Returning to the groups that made the postseason, seven of the 14 drafted a quarterback inside the prime seven from 2018-24, together with three first-overall picks.

Of the remaining groups, the Rams traded for Matthew Stafford (the No. 1 general choose in 2009), the Seahawks signed Sam Darnold final offseason (the No. 3 general choose in 2018), the Broncos and Packers discovered their franchise quarterbacks later in the first spherical (Bo Nix, No. 12 general in 2024; Jordan Love, No. 26 general in 2020), and solely Jalen Hurts (No. 53 general in 2020) and Brock Purdy (Mr. Irrelevant in 2022) had been chosen after the first spherical. 

What does Pittsburgh do now?

Good information: I talked about what the Steelers must do on a current episode of “With the First Pick” with former Titans common supervisor Ran Carthon.

First issues first, they should discover a new head coach. But whoever will get the job, the blueprint does not change a lot, a minimum of in the brief time period.

The Steelers have the twenty first choose in the upcoming draft, and there are positive to be discussions about Alabama’s Ty Simpson and whether or not he is value a first-round choice given each his lack of expertise and his uneven efficiency over the second half of the 2025 season. Unless the Steelers are as sure as you may be about a draft prospect, they need to cross on a QB at No. 21 and goal the greatest accessible participant. On a workforce full of wants, that might be in their greatest curiosity.

(You is likely to be questioning what current historical past tells us. From 2010-25, 9 quarterbacks had been drafted between picks 20 and 32. Of these, solely Jordan Love and Lamar Jackson are thought-about franchise QBs, although Jaxson Dart, chosen twenty fifth by the Giants final April, can have a probability to affix that group. Other names embrace Pickett, Paxton Lynch, Johnny Manziel, Teddy Bridgewater (whose profession was sidetracked by a critical knee damage) Brandon Weeden and Tim Tebow.)

Maybe meaning giving 2025 sixth-round choose Will Howard a probability to win the job (some groups thought he had a probability to be a Day 2 choose final spring). Or possibly meaning a 12 months of Mason Rudolph, or probably re-signing Skylar Thompson, who appeared good in the preseason.

2026 NFL mock draft: Where Fernando Mendoza, Rueben Bain Jr. and different CFP nationwide championship stars land

Josh Edwards

Alternatively, the Steelers may swing for the fences, like the Rams and Lions did in the blockbuster Stafford-Goff commerce — or like Pittsburgh did when it traded for Minkah Fitzpatrick — besides this time by discovering a confirmed quarterback with a lot of tread left on the tires.

The drawback, of course, is that these QBs are onerous to return by as a result of in the event that they’re taking part in at a excessive degree, brief of demanding a commerce or retiring, there isn’t any incentive for a workforce to ship them elsewhere.

Which means, for now, the Steelers are caught. The concept of one other quarterback bandage in the mould of what we noticed in current years must be a nonstarter as a result of why? If the aim is to win playoff video games — never thoughts attending to a Super Bowl — historical past has proven the greatest teaching on the planet can’t overcome common to above-average quarterback play.

Why short-term ache could also be unavoidable

The actuality in 2026 might be extra losing than profitable. Think of it like this — and I can not consider it is come to me making ecological analogies, however right here we’re: In the second, pure forest fires seem extremely damaging however, to quote National Geographic, “Small, low-intensity fires help rejuvenate forests and are overall beneficial for conservation.”

This could be that: short-term ache with a long-term imaginative and prescient.

There are different causes to think about this path. The Steelers have the second-oldest roster in the NFL, with a median age of 27.3, forward of solely the Commanders. They additionally rank ninth in accessible salary-cap house at $46.6 million heading into the offseason, based on Spotrac. And in addition they have 12 draft picks, together with three third-rounders.

There isn’t any higher time to purge the roster of growing older stars. Maybe meaning buying and selling T.J. Watt or Pat Freiermuth; possibly Cam Heyward retires. Use the cap house and draft picks to construct a roster that may help whoever the subsequent franchise quarterback is.

Look what the Texans have accomplished for C.J. Stroud, or the Patriots for Drake Maye, or the Seahawks for Sam Darnold. That was once the Steelers!

And this is the place issues get dicey.

Why betting on a future QB class is a dangerous technique

We say it yearly round this time, however … “next year’s QB class appears to be loaded!” It’s a harmful sentiment to suppose, never thoughts say aloud, however after two lean years in 2025 and 2026 — when Cam Ward and Dart had been the solely first-round QBs a 12 months in the past and Fernando Mendoza might be the lone first-round QB in this draft — the 2027 group appears to be like, at the very least, promising.

There is Arch Manning, of course, however different names already on NFL groups’ radars embrace Dante Moore, Jayden Maiava, LaNorris Sellers and Brendan Sorsby. The extra names, the higher your odds of hitting on a quarterback, although the cautionary tales abound.

Just have a look at the 2024 class, when six QBs went in the prime 12. So far, that group is batting a respectable .667 — Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels (when he is wholesome), Drake Maye and Bo Nix have all, to various levels, been profitable. J.J. McCarthy and Michael Penix Jr. stay query marks, and the 2026 season might be their final probability to show themselves with their present groups.

The different situation is that the “can’t-miss QBs” we speak up greater than a 12 months out aren’t at all times the names that really find yourself as first-round picks. Here are some of the “first-round prospects” media of us talked up the summer season forward of that 12 months’s draft:

Put one other manner: making an attempt to foretell first-round QBs earlier than they’ve performed their remaining school season is a idiot’s errand. So whereas the Steelers’ technique should not be, “We’ll be able to get our next franchise QB in 2027!” it additionally should not be the “This is fine” dog-in-a-burning-room meme.

The reckoning lastly arrives

Mike Tomlin did not fail in Pittsburgh. He succeeded so fully that the franchise never needed to confront its personal mortality — till it did. His groups squeezed each ounce of worth out of the roster each season for almost twenty years. But the league caught up, the quarterback left, and the margins disappeared. Tomlin’s consistency wasn’t the drawback; it simply delayed the reckoning.

Now the Steelers lastly must do what they have not accomplished since 2003: rebuild with intention, not satisfaction. Because typically the hardest rebuild is not the one you select — it is the one you postpone.