The Seahawks and Patriots are headed to Super Bowl LX, which kicks off at 6:30 p.m. ET on Feb. 8 at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California.
With two weeks till the big recreation, we’re taking an early look at the matchup. Lindsey Thiry units it up with what to know, and our NFL Nation reporters Mike Reiss and Brady Henderson choose causes for hope and concern for each groups. Seth Walder provides you some key stats, Matt Bowen picks a key matchup and Eric Moody pulls out an X issue. Aaron Schatz solutions big questions surrounding the ultimate recreation of the season, Dan Graziano judges one potential overreaction and Ben Solak explores the quarterback matchup. And lastly, we now have early gut-reaction predictions from our consultants.
Does the Patriots’ secondary stand an opportunity towards Seahawks receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba? Will New England’s Drake Maye turn out to be the fifth quarterback to win a Super Bowl of their second NFL season? Here’s every part it’s good to know.
Jump to a piece:
Seahawks | Patriots | Key stats
Matchup keys | Big questions
Overreaction | Quarterbacks
Betting | Predictions
Super Bowl LX: Seahawks vs. Patriots
When: Sunday, Feb. 8, 6:30 p.m. ET on NBC
Where: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara | Tickets
Opening line: SEA -3.5 (O/U 46.5)
ESPN’s Football Power Index: SEA, 60.2% (by 3.6 factors)
Forever ingrained in Seahawks and Patriots lore is cornerback Malcolm Butler’s interception at the 1-yard line to safe a 28-24 victory in Super Bowl XLIX at the top of the 2014 season. This upcoming contest marks the ninth time there was a Super Bowl rematch. New England has been concerned in 4 of these matchups, essentially the most by any staff. For the Patriots, it is a return to the Super Bowl after a six-year absence following the top of the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady dynasty. And for the Seahawks, it is going to be their fourth look.
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Tucked away within the Pacific Northwest, coach Mike MacDonald and the Seahawks quietly constructed on their 10-7 document in MacDonald’s first season, successful the NFC West and incomes the No. 1 seed in Year 2. In his first season in Seattle, quarterback Sam Darnold joined Tom Brady as the one quarterbacks to place collectively back-to-back 14-win seasons. Boasting the highest scoring protection (17.2 factors allowed per recreation), the Seahawks additionally acquired a midseason increase with the acquisition of large receiver Rashid Shaheed. His standout play as a return specialist supplied sparks in a number of key wins.
In his first season as New England’s head coach, Mike Vrabel orchestrated a turnaround that took a 4-13 staff to the Patriots’ first division title since successful 11 straight from 2009 to 2019. They are the sixth staff to achieve the Super Bowl after having 5 or fewer wins within the earlier season. The final staff to win a Super Bowl on this situation was the 2001 Patriots — Brady’s first season because the beginning QB. After a 1-2 begin in 2025, the Patriots received 13 of their subsequent 14 video games behind a top-five scoring offense and protection. Second-year quarterback Drake Maye led the NFL in Total QBR (77.1) this season. — Thiry
Regular season: 14-3 | NFC seed: No. 1
Reason for hope: Defense wins championships, and the Seahawks have an elite one. Mike Macdonald’s unit allowed the fewest factors within the NFL within the common season at 16.4 per recreation, after which it turned it up a notch within the divisional spherical towards the 49ers. Seattle held San Francisco to a pair of subject targets, received three takeaways and compelled three extra turnovers on downs. The Seahawks have now gone 27 straight video games with out permitting a 100-yard rusher regardless of going through Christian McCaffrey twice, Kyren Williams twice, Bijan Robinson as soon as and Jonathan Taylor as soon as over the previous two months.
Reason for concern: Turnovers. Only Minnesota dedicated greater than Seattle’s 28 through the common season. Sam Darnold made the Pro Bowl regardless of main all gamers with 20 turnovers, although he did not give the ball away within the Seahawks’ previous three video games. Darnold can also be enjoying by means of an indirect damage, and Seattle’s offense simply misplaced certainly one of its most dependable gamers — operating again Zach Charbonnet — to an ACL tear. — Henderson
Regular season: 14-3 | AFC seed: No. 2
Reason for hope: Quarterback Drake Maye. His knack for making performs along with his arm and legs is exclusive, as is his pinpoint accuracy on deep passes — even when he is escaping the pocket. In the common season, he led the NFL in completion proportion (72%), passer ranking (113.5) and yards per try (8.93). Maye’s 37-yard run within the wild-card spherical set a franchise document, and he had a 28-yarder to arrange the Patriots’ go-ahead subject aim within the AFC title recreation. Paired with a protection that has confirmed it might probably play at a excessive stage within the postseason, it is a probably harmful mixture.
Reason for concern: Turnovers — identical because the Seahawks. Maye fumbled six occasions within the Patriots’ first two playoff matchups (shedding three of them), and he additionally had a tipped-ball interception towards the Chargers. So, the Patriots have been dwelling dangerously at occasions with ball safety. Youth can also be a consideration. In addition to 4 undrafted free brokers, the Patriots have all 11 draft picks from 2025 on their roster. The Super Bowl is a big stage for rookies. — Reiss
Stats to know
Every quantity tells the identical story towards the Seahawks’ protection: You can’t run on it. Opponent success fee on designed runs towards Seattle is simply 34%, the bottom within the NFL. Its EPA per play on these performs is minus-0.15, additionally the bottom. And opponents have managed minus-34 first downs over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats, when speeding towards Seattle. That’s by far the bottom within the league (subsequent closest is the Texans at minus-14).
0:16
Seahawks get essential fourth-down cease in pink zone
Devon Witherspoon breaks up Matthew Stafford’s move to Terrance Ferguson in the long run zone on fourth down.
The Patriots are one of the best staff in crucial a part of soccer: passing offense (0.23 EPA per play). They even have the most important hole between their EPA per play on designed passes versus designed runs (0.28 distinction), so it’s important that they put the ball in Maye’s arms as a lot as attainable within the Super Bowl. And they’ve performed that up thus far with the second-highest move fee over anticipated (plus-4%) within the NFL, per NFL Next Gen Stats. — Walder
Inside the matchup
Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. the Patriots’ quarters protection
The Patriots performed quarters protection (4 deep, three beneath) on 19.5% of opponent dropbacks through the playoffs. Here, the Seahawks can scheme for Smith-Njigba out of slot alignments to create vertical matchups versus New England safeties Jaylinn Hawkins and Craig Woodson. Smith-Njigba caught 24 passes for 335 yards out of the slot this season. This is the place coordinator Klint Kubiak can arrange his shot performs for Darnold. — Bowen
Seahawks’ X issue: Rashid Shaheed, WR
Shaheed brings a singular ability set to the Seahawks’ offense. He’s explosive and able to scoring at any time when he touches the ball as a receiver, as a runner or on particular groups. That skill was on show within the NFC Championship Game, when he hauled in a 51-yard reception. With large receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba and operating again Kenneth Walker III anticipated to command important consideration from New England, Shaheed could possibly be in favorable matchups on the league’s largest stage.
Get prepared for the NFL offseason
• Offseason information for eradicated groups
• Ranks: Free brokers | Draft prospects
• Early wants for each staff | Draft order
• Tracking teaching hirings, firings
Patriots’ X issue: Rhamondre Stevenson, RB
Stevenson has emerged as an under-the-radar star for the Patriots. After a tough begin to the season marked by fumbling points, he was given the chance to show issues round following Antonio Gibson’s season-ending damage and has delivered since Week 6 whereas enjoying alongside rookie TreVeyon Henderson. Running behind an inconsistent Patriots offensive line, Stevenson has nonetheless been productive, totaling 58 touches and 280 yards in three postseason video games. Vrabel trusts Stevenson, and the operating again is predicted to be leaned on closely by the Patriots within the Super Bowl. — Moody
Answering big questions
Did Sam Darnold present main enhancements this season, or was he once more carried by a robust protection?
The reply is each. Darnold confirmed main enhancements within the first half of the common season after which regressed considerably because the Seahawks’ protection received even higher. Remarkably, he completed the 2025 common season with a decrease QBR (56.0) than he had final season in Minnesota (57.3). Although he had a better completion fee and was sacked fewer occasions, he additionally had extra interceptions and fewer touchdowns.
And look at how Darnold’s stats are break up this season: In Weeks 1-9, Darnold had a 77.9 QBR. At that time, he was second within the NFL behind Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson. For Weeks 10-18, Darnold had a 37.4 QBR, which ranked twenty sixth. Every a part of Darnold’s efficiency declined within the second half of the season.
Sam Darnold’s 2025 splits
| Comp. % | Yds/Att | TDs | INTs | Sacks | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-9 | 70.4% | 9.6 | 16 | 5 | 9 |
| Weeks 10-18 | 65.5% | 7.5 | 9 | 9 | 18 |
Did the Patriots have the best path ever to the Super Bowl by power of schedule?
Based on my DVOA scores, the Patriots had the third-easiest regular-season schedule since 1978. Their common opponent had a minus-13.3% DVOA. In different phrases, their common opponent was about nearly as good as Washington or Miami in 2025.
However, the 2 groups with simpler schedules by common DVOA of opponents additionally made it to the Super Bowl. The 1991 Bills had the best schedule by DVOA (minus-14.8%), adopted by the 1999 Rams (minus-14.5%).
We even have to think about the opponents these groups confronted within the playoffs. The Patriots began out with the Chargers, who ranked seventeenth in DVOA. Houston was fourth and Denver was seventh.
However, the 1991 Bills and 1999 Rams had simpler playoff roads as a result of they began out towards no person. (First-round byes are rather a lot simpler than going through a mean staff such because the Chargers.) The 1991 Bills confronted the Chiefs (fifth) after which the Broncos (fifteenth). The 1999 Rams had it a little bit more durable, going through the Vikings (sixth) and the Buccaneers (tenth).
The Patriots arguably had a neater path due to circumstances. For instance, they beat the Broncos’ backup quarterback and performed the Texans with out large receiver Nico Collins. But the Rams additionally confronted Tampa Bay’s backup quarterback within the NFC Championship Game.
It’s price noting two groups earlier than DVOA scores started: the 1970 Baltimore Colts and the 1972 Miami Dolphins. They confronted the best regular-season schedules primarily based on their opponents’ win-loss document. Baltimore’s opponents had been at .352, Miami’s opponents at .357 and the 1999 Rams’ opponents at .363. This yr’s Patriots opponents are at .429. — Schatz
0:32
Drake Maye seals the AFC Championship with gutsy scramble
Drake Maye retains it for a vital first-down conversion to seal a win over the Broncos and ship the Patriots to Super Bowl LX.
Judging one overreaction: Darnold will get an enormous contract extension this offseason
Yes, overreaction. First of all, the Seahawks need not give Darnold an extension. He is signed by means of 2027 with no assured cash left on his deal past what they’ve already paid him. Darnold made $37.5 million this season, within the first yr of the three-year, $100.5 million deal he signed with the Seahawks in March. Now, Seattle has to determine by 5 days after the Super Bowl whether or not it needs to pay his $15 million 2026 roster bonus. Because the Seahawks are enjoying within the Super Bowl, it is in all probability truthful to count on them to select up that bonus, and he’ll make a further $12.5 million in wage in 2026.
The level right here is in regards to the Seahawks and the way in which they view the quarterback place. They traded Russell Wilson once they knew he was going to get one other top-of-market extension, and so they did not consider he was nonetheless the kind of participant who deserved that. They traded Geno Smith when he rebuffed their makes an attempt at a contract extension. And pivoting to Darnold has labored. The picks the Seahawks received for Wilson helped them construct an NFC champion roster, and Darnold has to this point been ok to make them the Super Bowl. But Seattle thought Darnold was price $33.5 million per yr in free company, and I consider it nonetheless values him in that vary.
If Darnold had been to insist on a big-money contract extension and threaten to sit down out, Seattle’s current conduct tells us it’d in all probability commerce him and discover a succesful substitute to plug into its deep, wonderful roster. The Seahawks do not wish to spend great-QB cash on a very good — even very good — QB. They do not consider that is one of the simplest ways to construct a championship roster. If that they had Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen or Joe Burrow or one other clearly elite quarterback, they’d be keen to pay him at the highest of the market, as they had been early in Wilson’s profession. But if something, attending to the Super Bowl with Darnold solely proves them proper of their perception that they will determine it out at QB. — Graziano
The quarterback matchup
Darnold vs. Maye
If anybody had this Super Bowl quarterback matchup on their bingo card, I’d wish to see it. What an unbelievable pairing — however definitely well-earned by each to make it right here.
By the numbers, Maye has had a tough postseason. His two worst video games of the season, by EPA per dropback and success fee, had been the 2 most up-to-date wins towards the Broncos and Texans; the win over the Chargers within the wild-card spherical was additionally a below-average efficiency in each metrics. His sack fee has doubled within the playoffs, from 7.8% to 14.7%, and his completion proportion has gone from 9.1% above expectation to five.8% beneath expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats.
Super Bowl LX: Seahawks-Patriots
• First look at the Super Bowl matchup
• Barnwell: How the Seahawks, Pats received
• Bracket and schedule | More content material
Of course, we now have a simple strategy to clarify this: He has performed three wonderful defenses, and it was snowing considerably towards two of them (the Texans and Broncos). Maye hasn’t been at his greatest, and it is truthful to say that the mix of his first playoffs and the softer regular-season schedule has affected his recreation. Now, he will get the Seahawks’ protection, which just one quarterback has reliably crushed this season: Matthew Stafford, Maye’s competitors for MVP.
Even Darnold’s staunchest believers questioned about his skill in big video games and key moments. This Rams’ protection, particularly, had flummoxed Darnold as a Viking final postseason and once more as a Seahawk on this common season. But he was stellar towards the Rams within the NFC Championship Game, avoiding turnovers whereas making aggressive throws between zones. He was fearless in a spot many anticipated him to worry.
Much of Darnold’s success is to the credit score of Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, a stellar schemer with a deep menu of screens, rollouts and play-action passes to create open receivers and explosive performs with out taxing Darnold an excessive amount of. The Patriots know the scouting report on Darnold — he can fade beneath the big lights and can spiral into unhealthy turnovers beneath a heavy dose of strain. But with two weeks of prep, who will win the game-planning battle? Vrabel and his defensive workers in constructing out these strain plans; or Kubiak, with all of his intelligent machinations?
Darnold is among the highest ceiling/lowest flooring quarterbacks within the league. Maye, a 23-year-old enjoying within the Super Bowl towards an elite protection, has a equally wide selection of outcomes. Hold on to your butts! — Solak
Betting nuggets
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This is the primary Super Bowl in over 50 years between two groups that entered the season with at least 60-1 odds to win the Super Bowl.
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Underdogs are 5-0 towards the unfold and 4-1 outright up to now 5 Super Bowls, together with three straight outright wins.
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Mike Vrabel (-400) and Mike Macdonald (+450) had been the 2 favorites to win Coach of the Year within the closing odds at DraftKings. No one has received Coach of the Year and the Super Bowl in the identical season since 2003 (Bill Belichick).
More Super Bowl LX odds and developments
Gut-reaction predictions
Stephania Bell, NFL analyst: Seahawks. Their protection would be the difference-maker right here; the constant, relentless strain up entrance will finally power expensive turnovers by the Patriots.
Matt Bowen, NFL analyst: Seahawks. Their protection has the staff pace and bodily demeanor up entrance to restrict Maye’s skill to create explosive performs.
Dan Graziano, nationwide NFL reporter: Seahawks. They’ve been one of the best staff all season, hiding in plain sight, and so they’ll make life brutally powerful on Maye, who has already been sacked 15 occasions this postseason.
Dan Orlovsky, NFL analyst: Seahawks. The Patriots’ offense is not ok to beat this Seattle protection.
Eric Moody, fantasy and betting analyst: Seahawks. Seattle’s protection has been formidable all season, and protection nonetheless wins championships. The Patriots are averaging simply 18.0 factors per recreation this postseason, the fourth fewest by a staff getting into the Super Bowl and the fewest since 1979. Two of the three groups went on to lose the Super Bowl.
Jason Reid, senior Andscape author: Seahawks. The Seahawks’ top-ranked scoring protection will shut down the Patriots’ offense.
Aaron Schatz, NFL analyst: Seahawks. The Seahawks have been No. 1 in my DVOA scores for many of the second half of the season, and with that protection, I’m anticipating a lower-scoring Super Bowl. Seahawks 24, Patriots 18.
Ben Solak, NFL analyst: Seahawks. The Patriots’ run towards elite defenses ends with the true greatest unit of the season. With two weeks to plan, Macdonald may have too many instruments to fluster and disrupt Maye.
Lindsey Thiry, nationwide NFL reporter: Seahawks. They’re enjoying textbook complementary soccer on offense, protection and particular groups. And they’ve standout playmakers who can change the sport in a second’s discover in every section.
Seth Walder, NFL analyst: Seahawks. ESPN’s FPI, which considers a staff’s play on a down-to-down foundation all season, sees the Seahawks as being in a unique class because the Patriots. I’m inclined to belief the numbers. Seahawks by double digits.
Field Yates, NFL analyst: Seahawks. The Patriots have confronted an especially troublesome string of defenses this postseason, discovering methods to beat the sphere within the AFC. But Seattle’s roster is superior to the rosters of its first three foes, and I consider Seattle will take house the franchise’s second Lombardi Trophy.
