The AFC Championship is on the road, as is a visit to Super Bowl LX, when the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos go toe-to-toe at Mile High. These have been the highest two seeds within the convention on the finish of the common season, so it is becoming to see them because the final golf equipment standing.
However, the Broncos will look remarkably totally different on this matchup than they’ve all year long, notably within the aftermath of Bo Nix struggling a season-ending ankle damage within the remaining moments of Denver’s extra time win towards the Bills final weekend. That now thrusts backup Jarrett Stidham into the beginning spot because the Broncos hope he’ll assist propel them to their first journey to the Super Bowl since reaching Super Bowl 50.
As for the Patriots, they arrive into the convention title recreation thanks largely to some dominant play defensively this postseason, most notably forcing 5 turnovers (4 interceptions coming from C.J. Stroud) towards the Texans final weekend. They are within the midst of a historic turnaround following a 4-13 marketing campaign a season in the past. Under first-year head coach Mike Vrabel, New England is now 16-3 (together with playoffs), which is tied for the 1998-99 Rams (+12) for the biggest year-over-year win whole improve (together with playoffs) in NFL historical past. On high of Vrabel’s arrival, that ascent has been spearheaded by Drake Maye, catapulting him into an MVP candidate in his second season. Maye is now trying to change into the second-youngest QB to begin in a Super Bowl, solely trying up to Dan Marino.
These franchises are not any strangers to seeing each other within the playoffs. This would be the sixth time they’ve squared off within the postseason, with Denver holding a 4-1 edge in these prior matchups. New England can also be 0-4 on the street in Denver within the playoffs, in order that they’ll want to obtain what no different Patriots workforce has achieved earlier than to inch one step nearer to a championship.
As we gear up for this AFC Championship, let’s spotlight a key X issue for every workforce that could show to be the distinction in them advancing or going residence.
Where to watch Broncos vs. Patriots stay
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 25 | Time: 3 p.m. ET
- Location: Empower Field at Mile High (Denver)
- TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+
- Odds: Patriots -5.5, O/U 42.5 (odds through DraftKings Sportsbook)
Patriots’ X issue: Drake Maye wants to defend the soccer
What’s gone beneath the radar over New England’s playoff run has been Drake Maye being a bit too free with the soccer. During the Patriots’ first two postseason matchups, Maye has six fumbles (three misplaced) and two interceptions. One of these interceptions was a heave to the top zone within the remaining seconds of the primary half towards Houston, so we are able to forged that one off to the facet. That mentioned, that is nonetheless far too many turnovers if you happen to’re attempting to win a championship.
To this level, the Patriots have not actually been burned by Maye giving the ball to the opposition, thanks to their dominant play defensively. Of these 4 true turnovers, New England opponents have scored simply seven factors. While they’ve held up till this level, Maye cannot financial institution on the protection to bail him out. Turning the ball over and giving his protection quick fields to work with is a recipe for a workforce just like the Broncos — who are beginning a backup quarterback on this recreation — to scent blood within the water and eye an upset.
Now this is not all on Maye. The second-year quarterback has held onto the ball a bit too lengthy at instances, however he is additionally been beneath siege due to some poor play, notably on the left facet of the offensive line. This postseason, Maye has been sacked 10 instances, which is essentially the most amongst all quarterbacks. Rookie left deal with Will Campbell has accounted for 3 of these sacks, which is a departure from his robust play throughout the common season.
|
Sacks allowed |
6 |
3 |
|
Pressure charge allowed |
4.7% |
11.0% |
Campbell struggled towards Chargers move rusher Odafe Oweh over Wild Card Weekend, together with Will Anderson Jr. within the divisional spherical, and it will not get any simpler within the AFC Championship. Now, Campbell and the remainder of the Patriots offensive line can have to sq. up towards a Broncos move rush that simply set a franchise file 71 sacks (and counting) on the season. Most notably, Campbell can have to cope with Denver move rusher Nik Bonitto, who had the third-highest strain charge (19.1%) within the league this season (min. 400 rushes).
If New England can maintain up in safety and Maye performs a clear recreation, there’s a clear avenue to victory. If these turnovers and leakiness on the left facet persist, it is anybody’s ballgame, regardless of who is beneath middle for Denver.
Broncos’ X issue: Don’t ask Jarrett Stidham to do an excessive amount of
Let’s simply be blunt. The Broncos are in a tough place. No workforce needs to have to flip to a backup quarterback for a recreation with stakes as massive because the AFC Championship, however right here they’re. With Nix sidelined, Jarrett Stidham will begin for Denver. When he does, it’s going to mark the primary time he is began a significant recreation since Week 18 of the 2023 season, which can also be the final time he tried a move within the NFL. Moreover, it’s going to be simply his fifth-ever begin within the NFL and the primary style of playoff motion in his profession.
Stidham would be the seventh quarterback to make his first begin of the season within the playoffs. Only one of many earlier six was in a position to win a recreation (Frank Reich in 1992). That’s not to say that Stidham merely cannot lead the Broncos to an AFC title and a visit to the Super Bowl, however it’ll have to be beneath particular circumstances.
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Sean Payton is now tasked with managing Stidham and never letting the sport get too out of hand in order that the backup turned starter will want to throw his workforce again into it, which might probably flip right into a catastrophe.
First off, Denver will want to get some semblance of a working recreation going to take strain off Stidham. The Broncos could doubtlessly get a lift in that regard with a return of J.Okay. Dobbins, who has been sidelined since Week 10 due to a foot damage. Denver did open up his apply window this week and reportedly has an opportunity to play within the AFC Championship. If he does, that could enormously assist a Denver working recreation that’s backside 10 in speeding yards per recreation and yards per rush since he went down. Before the damage, Dobbins was averaging a career-high 77.2 speeding yards per recreation.
On high of a potential Dobbins return to enhance the bottom assault, Denver’s offensive line will want to proceed holding up in move safety. The unit is coming off a daily season the place they allowed simply 23 sacks (tied for the fewest within the NFL). A clear pocket will do wonders for Stidham, notably early as he will get right into a rhythm.
To additional assist in move safety, Payton can be sensible to name performs that see Stidham make fast, single-read throws, whether or not or not it’s screens, slants, or hitches. That’ll assist with tempo and never have him cope with New England’s rising move rush.
On the defensive facet of issues, they’re going to want to preserve Drake Maye and the Patriots offense in verify by pressuring him as we highlighted above. Essentially, Payton and the Broncos ought to look to convey this recreation to a screeching halt and switch it right into a rock combat. If they will, Stidham will not be requested to throw them to the Super Bowl.
