The SportsLine Projection Model was developed and powered by the Inside the Lines team. You can find all of our team’s picks and content at our blog, which has all our personal best bets for free. Our NFL model simulates each game thousands of times and has performed extremely well on top rated spread, total and money line picks, going 72-47, 60.5% (+18.5 units) in NFL betting over the last three seasons.
Our model is different than most. We don’t try to accurately forecast who is going to cover. Over two decades, we have reverse engineered oddsmakers’ models which has resulted in 85-90% of our projections being virtually identical to the oddsmaker’s lines (main markets and props). When top sportsbooks‘ lines differ from ours, we know they are likely manipulating a line to either generate monetary value or minimize risk. And more often than not, betting the line that is statistically sound is the better side.
Using the model for betting power rankings
In our Week 1 projections on SportsLine, there are only three good spread or money line betting values. This is a strong indicator that our model’s overall ‘opinion’ of the 32 NFL teams is in line with the oddsmakers’ consensus. In order to generate our power rankings, we take our model one step further. We simulate every team vs every other team on a neutral field based on the roster that they’d have at the time of the Super Bowl. The SIM WIN% below is the average percentage of simulations each team has won versus the 31 other teams.
This allows us to rank teams objectively without the bias that strength of schedule can have when projecting win totals, playoff% and Super Bowl chances. The SOS (Strength of Schedule) is based on each team’s opponents average SIM WIN% and the Bears have the toughest.
My purpose is not to reinforce my biased opinions — it’s to help identify good betting values. If we are 95% aligned with the oddsmakers in how good teams are all things being equal, we can identify the lines and odds that do not reflect what Vegas actually thinks.
Bills to win the Super Bowl +750 (FanDuel)
The power ranking gap between No. 2 Baltimore and No. 3 Buffalo is much larger than the gap between Buffalo and Detroit, but Buffalo has a higher Super Bowl% than Baltimore. Why? They play the Ravens at home. They also play every other tough team at home (Chiefs, Bucs, Bengals, Eagles) and they are the only team in their division with a win total line above .500.
This results in Buffalo being a >50% favorite for that AFC One Seed. Having a 100% chance of reaching the divisional round as opposed to maybe a 70% chance of a #2 seed is what is elevating Buffalo to the top in the AFC forecast.
Packers to win NFC North +260 (bet365)
The power rankings — and general consensus — say that Detroit is better than Green Bay. The +3.3% edge for the Lions is worth 2 points on the spread. But it’s the Packers who have the higher chance to win the NFC North at 41.5% (Detroit comes in at 33.6%). The +260 at bet365 is much better than the +225 on DraftKings. If you fade us, then go to DraftKings for the Lions at +160.
The Packers being at +260 implies under a 28% chance to win the division (Lions at +160 implies 38%). Green Bay not only benefits from a third place schedule — they benefit from having an easier schedule than the fourth-placed Bears, because Green Bay plays at Arizona instead of at San Francisco (which finished fourth in the NFC West).
Chiefs Under 11.5 wins -120 (DraftKings)
DraftKings has our worst price for the Packers to win the division, but they are offering the best one for this Chiefs under.
The Chiefs opened as -2.5 favorites vs the Chargers in week 1 (neutral field) and our model line has the game virtually the same at KC -2. Denver’s win total line is as high as -140 o9.5, the Chargers are as high as -120 o9.5, and the Raiders are a heavily juiced o6.5.
The fact that our projected win totals for KC’s division opponents and KC in Week 1 ATS are so aligned with the odds makes us confident that our ‘opinion of the Chiefs’ that they are due to regress to their point differential and not win literally every close game is strongly in play. In sims KC wins 12+ just 24.4% of the time so we would charge -300 for under 11.5 making the -120 a great value.
Buccaneers to win NFC South -105 (FanDuel)
Hard Rock is offering the best price on our board at +100, many of you may not be able to take advantage of it due to your geographic location. FanDuel is offering virtually the same line at -105. Unlike the other best bets, which are more about the lines not being set correctly, this one is really about our believing in Tampa Bay over the rest of the division.
Our strongest value against the spread in Week 1 is Tampa Bay -1.5 at Altanta, with the Bucs covering 65% of the simulations. You have to love that Tampa Bay straight has basically been as good or better on the road than at home for two straight seasons.
2024: Average score 31 to 23 on the road (5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS); 28-23 at home (5-5 SU and ATS)
2023: Average score 23-22 on road (5-5 SU, 8-2 ATS), 19-16 at home (5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS)
Tampa Bay had a +151 point differential advantage over No. 2 Atlanta and +310 over No. 3 Carolina (over 18 per game). That is way too much of a gap for Michael Penix in Year 2 and Bryce Young in Year 3 to close on Baker Mayfield. Remember, even if these two young QBs are great, their defenses still stink. Atlanta allowed nearly 25 points per game and Carolina allowed more than 35 per game while playing a relatively soft schedule.
New Orleans Saints Over 4.5 wins-125 (FanDuel)
Even though there is a ton of value on New Orleans making the playoffs at +850 (bet365) I cannot and will not recommend betting on the worst team in football to go the playoffs. The model has them as just +3.5 underdogs at home vs. Arizona, and overall they have the third easiest schedule in the league. It would be that much easier if they got to play themselves.
But the fact is the Saints’ -60 point differential last season was much better than Carolina’s or other last placed teams like the Giants (-142), Raiders (-125) and Browns (-177). If Derek Carr and Rashid Shaheed hadn’t gotten hurt, maybe they would have been a 28 ppg team. They averaged 45.5 in their first two games.
The defense is not awful, they can still run the ball with Alvin Kamara and have an underrated WR trio with Chris Olave, Brandin Cooks and Shaheed. If Tyler Shough can be a game manager (64% cmp, 6.9 ypa, 17 TD and 10 INT) the Saints could win seven or eight games.
They are projected to have at least a 40% chance (3.5-point dogs or better) in all but five games. A 1-4 record in these games plus a 4-9 record in the winnable games is all it takes.
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