Bill Barnwell
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- Bill Barnwell is a senior NFL author for ESPN.com. He analyzes soccer on and off the discipline like nobody else on the planet, writing about in-season X’s and O’s, offseason transactions and a lot extra.
He is the host of the Bill Barnwell Show podcast, with episodes launched weekly. Barnwell joined ESPN in 2011 as a employees author at Grantland.
We noticed two very totally different one-score NFL playoff video games in Sunday’s convention championship spherical.
The Patriots outlasted the Broncos in the snow to win 10-7 in the AFC Championship Game, whereas the Seahawks slid previous the Rams in a high-scoring NFC Championship Game, successful 31-27. The outcome: The Patriots and Seahawks are going to Super Bowl LX on Feb. 8.
Did the Patriots merely profit from Bo Nix not being in the Broncos’ lineup, or was this an announcement recreation for the protection? Did Sam Darnold exorcise his Rams demons and show he can win the huge recreation? And have been teaching selections guilty for each the Broncos and Rams?
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I’m going to type by way of all of that and attempt to make sense of the two convention title video games and what they imply. Let’s begin in the NFC.
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NE-DEN | LAR-SEA
Sam Darnold lastly got here by way of. Regardless of what occurs in the Super Bowl, Darnold has formally accomplished the rewrite of his profession and gone from disappointing draft decide and journeyman to a significant a part of an amazing staff. And now, after definitively conquering a Rams staff that appeared to have carved out a house in Darnold’s head, he is one win away from a Super Bowl title no one might have anticipated.
Even as Darnold rose from the depths of the time he spent with coaches Adam Gase and Matt Rhule on hopeless groups, it was all the time straightforward to qualify his successes. He was taking part in in a dream state of affairs with the Vikings in 2024 given the teaching employees and playmakers, and superior metrics noticed him as one thing nearer to a median quarterback. His brutal finish to that season in opposition to the Lions and Rams in consecutive weeks satisfied the Vikings that they have been higher off shifting ahead with J.J. McCarthy as a less-expensive answer beneath heart.
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Darnold joined the Seahawks, and for three months, he was the NFL’s best QB. That success, nevertheless, additionally got here inside a play-action-heavy scheme and with a breakout famous person in receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and when Darnold met the Rams once more in Week 11, he cratered in a 21-19 loss. The 2018 No. 3 decide dropped from first in the NFL in Total QBR earlier than the Rams recreation to twenty seventh the remainder of the method.
Even as the Seahawks beat the Rams of their December rematch, the story of that recreation was extra about what surrounded Darnold. He averaged lower than 1 air yard per throw in the first half, as the Seahawks tried to restrict Darnold’s publicity to the Rams’ move rush. Darnold threw two picks, giving him six in two video games in opposition to Los Angeles, however he made a handful of vital throws throughout the staff’s fourth-quarter comeback and in time beyond regulation to assist lead the Seahawks to a 38-37 victory.
The Seahawks hadn’t wanted Darnold since then; that they had relied on their protection and a resurgent operating recreation to gas their success down the stretch. That wasn’t the case Sunday. Running again Kenneth Walker III had an amazing recreation when it comes to making unblocked or underblocked defenders miss, however Seahawks backs turned 22 carries into simply 66 dashing yards. And a dominant Seahawks protection got here up with a vital cease in the fourth quarter to carry on to a four-point lead, however the Rams once more had little hassle marching up and down the discipline, averaging greater than 8 yards per play and scoring 27 factors. The Seahawks wanted an amazing recreation from Darnold.
They obtained one. Darnold went 25-of-36 for 346 yards with three landing passes. His 82.9 Total QBR was the second-best efficiency by a quarterback this postseason, trailing solely Josh Allen’s herculean effort to beat the Jaguars in the wild-card spherical. Without a lot of a operating recreation all through the evening, Darnold thrived as a dropback passer, throwing for a season-high 248 yards and two touchdowns with out play fakes. The recreation was put on Darnold’s shoulders, and he repeatedly responded with correct throws.
Perhaps as vital, the detrimental performs that sparked a lot frustration in opposition to the Rams in the previous principally disappeared. Darnold wasn’t intercepted and put just one ball in peril all evening. He took three sacks, two of which got here on performs through which move rushers have been immediately on Darnold, leaving him no selection however go down and eat the soccer.
Darnold’s struggles coping with sustained strain have been career-altering moments in the previous, however he went 5-of-11 for 102 yards and hit all three of his landing passes in opposition to strain. The seen panic and frustration Darnold has proven at instances, notably in opposition to these Rams, merely wasn’t there. Darnold had been on both aspect of the timing paradigm, both making an attempt to increase performs and taking too many sacks or getting sped up and getting the ball out too shortly whereas getting tricked into interceptions. He was repeatedly on time, even beneath strain, in the NFC title recreation.
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Sam Darnold throws a dime to JSN for a TD
Sam Darnold throws a 14-yard landing move to Jaxon Smith-Njigba to present the Seahawks a 17-13 lead vs. the Rams.
Organizationally, it appeared the Seahawks realized that their solely method by way of the Rams was with Darnold concerned and taking part in effectively, too. There was no repeat of the hide-the-QB recreation plan from the first half of Week 16, as Darnold hit Rashid Shaheed up the sideline for 51 yards on the first third down of the recreation and averaged 8.6 air yards per throw throughout Sunday’s contest.
And after the Seahawks obtained their fourth-quarter cease and handed the ball again to Darnold with a four-point lead, Seattle was capable of bleed the Rams dry of timeouts and burn most of the remaining clock by staying aggressive and throwing the soccer. Darnold dropped again 5 instances on second and third downs, and he rewarded the Seahawks for their religion. On a second-and-6 inside Seattle’s 10-yard line, offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak dialed up arduous play-action and trusted Darnold to show his again to the protection with out giving the ball up. And the QB made the right resolution to test right down to Walker, who ran away from a deal with and picked up a primary down.
Darnold missed an open Shaheed on the ensuing second down on one in all his worst throws of the evening, however he made up for it by hitting Cooper Kupp on a crosser on the subsequent play to select up one other first down. With 3:05 to go on the subsequent second down, the Seahawks went again to play-action, and Darnold escaped the pocket to hit Smith-Njigba for one other first down on the run. And with 2:17 left, one other boot off play-action drew a holding penalty on Rams cornerback Cobie Durant, stopping Los Angeles from getting the ball again with something greater than a prayer. Darnold additionally hung on to the ball on the ensuing third down when no one blocked defensive deal with Braden Fiske, who ran over the Seattle quarterback on what gave the impression to be a busted play.
It’s not dismissing Darnold’s efficiency to say that his receivers helped. Shaheed, who had beforehand made a large affect as a runner and return man with out actually contributing as a receiver, lastly introduced in a deep shot in the opening quarter. Smith-Njigba made a spectacular one-handed catch and spun Kam Curl round on a corner-post route for a 42-yard achieve. Kubiak obtained Smith-Njigba broad open for a landing on a blown protection, lining the star wideout up in the backfield and operating him into the finish zone on a sail route. Kupp picked up three vital third downs. Heck, Jake Bobo stepped in and ran a post-corner route of his personal for a rating.
Of course, having an amazing recreation in opposition to the Rams does not inoculate Darnold from struggling in the future. He’ll be criticized if he does not play effectively in the Super Bowl. But the concept that having Darnold as your quarterback was disqualifying to your probabilities of competing for a title? That the journeyman QB would fold when the video games actually mattered in opposition to nice defenses? Those traces of thought are out the window. Darnold simply outplayed and beat the probably MVP in Matthew Stafford to go to a Super Bowl. For so lengthy, Darnold’s previous has felt like prologue. Now, it is simply the previous.
Super Bowl LX: Seahawks-Patriots
• First have a look at the Super Bowl matchup
• Barnwell: How the Seahawks, Pats gained
• Bracket and schedule | More content material
The Rams, in the meantime, will really feel like their 2025 losses all mix collectively. While Stafford and the offense turned the ball over six complete instances in two inexplicable defeats to the Falcons and Panthers, L.A.’s 4 different losses usually shared related scripts. The Rams had weaknesses, and these weaknesses have been exploitable. And whereas that they had sufficient expertise and star energy to cowl up these issues, subpar execution at the wrong time had a method of costing them shut video games in opposition to upper-echelon competitors.
If the Rams have been shedding an enormous recreation this season, this was the typical script:
1. The particular groups have been a catastrophe. The Rams completed the season twenty sixth in DVOA there, and even which may undersell how dramatically Sean McVay’s particular groups got here up brief in key moments. A pair of blocked discipline targets value them a win over the Eagles in Week 3. Another block and a miss helped resolve a loss to the 49ers in Week 5. The Rams additionally missed a 48-yard discipline purpose and allowed a Shaheed punt-return landing to assist gas the comeback win by the Seahawks in Week 16, main McVay to fireside particular groups coordinator Chase Blackburn two days later.
Things have not gotten a lot better since then, though the Rams had beforehand managed to beat these points. The Panthers blocked an Ethan Evans punt with 4:18 to go in the fourth quarter in the wild-card spherical, turning the ensuing brief discipline right into a landing to take the lead. Evans then managed solely a 33-yard punt late in the fourth quarter in opposition to the Bears, setting Chicago up at midfield because it drove for the game-tying landing at the finish of regulation. In each circumstances, the Rams have been capable of win the recreation regardless of these points.
They weren’t fairly as fortunate Sunday. This time, punt returner Xavier Smith was guilty. The 28-year-old muffed two punts, and he fell on the first, however wasn’t as fortunate on the second, as Smith fell over in what will need to have felt like sluggish movement earlier than the ball bounced off his physique early in the third quarter. The Seahawks recovered on Los Angeles’ 17-yard line, and Darnold hit Bobo for a landing on the subsequent play. It was the solely turnover of the recreation, and the brief discipline was probably the distinction in what was in any other case a really shut contest.
Dareke Young was the Seahawks participant who initially pressured Smith and then recovered the unfastened ball. He ran previous Rams cornerback Emmanuel Forbes Jr. on punt protection. Forbes’ efficiency Sunday was a part of one other widespread drawback for the Rams of their losses …
2. Teams have been capable of decide on the cornerbacks. This was the clear weak spot on GM Les Snead’s roster, however the Rams trusted that their scheme and move rush can be sufficient to cowl for an underwhelming crew of cornerbacks. The solely vital transfer they made so as to add expertise at the place was buying and selling for Titans cornerback Roger McCreary, who did not play for most of the common season. Forbes outplayed expectations after struggling to stay as much as his draft inventory in Washington, however groups have been capable of decide on him in key spots, together with performs in the Rams’ loss to the Eagles and on a pair of fourth-down scores of their loss to the Panthers in Week 13.
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Cooper Kupp will get controversial first down late in 4th
Cooper Kupp makes a clutch catch for the Seahawks that the referees rule a primary down in a vital second.
The Rams have spent the complete postseason biking by way of their choices at nook. Ahkello Witherspoon sustained a shoulder damage early in the wild-card win over the Panthers, ending his season, which led the Rams to carry again Darious Williams, who was a wholesome scratch for that contest. Forbes additionally suffered a shoulder damage and performed simply 4 snaps in the Rams’ win over the Bears final week, resulting in bigger roles for Williams and McCreary.
Forbes practiced in full on Friday and had no damage designation heading into the recreation, however regardless of being one in all the staff’s common corners alongside Durant for most of the yr, he did not play a single defensive snap in the first half of Sunday’s loss. Forbes did play on particular groups, which appeared to recommend that he won’t be capable to deal with if used on protection — however then the Rams put the third-year professional on the discipline for 24 defensive snaps in the second half. If Forbes was wholesome sufficient to play protection after halftime, why wasn’t he on the discipline beforehand?
The reply is the Rams have been most likely determined to get Williams off the discipline at that time. The veteran, whose spot on the roster has probably been a product of his $8 million in wage ensures this season, was a legal responsibility for the Rams early on this recreation. Shaheed merely torched the 32-year-old for a 51-yard achieve on the opening sequence, with an ankle deal with required to avoid wasting a landing. On the subsequent snap, Williams performed off-coverage in opposition to Smith-Njigba, with the Seahawks throwing a one-step hitch to their star wideout, who merely vaporized Williams with a juke. Smith-Njigba then picked up 16 yards on a curl in opposition to Williams in the second quarter. In all, Williams performed simply 9 defensive snaps in the third quarter and none in the fourth.
Williams wasn’t the solely cornerback who struggled. Durant had a key third-down move breakup, however he allowed a landing move to Bobo, gave the impression to be one in all the defenders concerned in the blown protection on the Smith-Njigba rating, gave up a vital third-down conversion to Kupp on the closing drive and completed the day by being flagged for holding on Kupp to all however finish the recreation.
3. A fourth-down play goes awry. Some of these fourth downs have been kicks, however the Rams’ loss to the 49ers swung on a purple zone fumble by Kyren Williams and a subsequent fourth-down failure in time beyond regulation, when McVay regretted dialing up a duo run for Williams on fourth-and-1 in the purple zone whereas trailing by three. The 49ers stuffed it for no achieve to finish the recreation.
Last time, McVay blamed himself. This time, after the Rams have been stopped on fourth-and-4 from the 6-yard line with 4:59 to go, he had a extra curious perpetrator. I’m undecided I’ve ever heard a coach blame the different staff busting a protection for stopping their fourth-down play, however that is precisely what McVay did after the recreation: “They kinda lucked into having two guys peel on Kyren right there. I know that can’t be part of their design. So it was a fortuitous bust by them.”
I would not choose Seahawks followers for seeing that quote and screaming about bitter grapes, however let’s perceive what occurred from McVay’s perspective, too. On the fourth-and-4, the Seahawks have been crowding the line of scrimmage and exhibiting a zero blitz, suggesting to Stafford that he wanted to get the ball out shortly. At the snap, they really dropped out and rushed solely three, bracketing Puka Nacua in the slot.
McVay has grown keen on throwing the ball to Williams on third and fourth downs this season on selection routes, the place Williams has a variety of open house and the skill to interrupt inside or outdoors relying on the leverage of the protection. It’s a pure place to go along with the soccer once we contemplate how a lot consideration groups are placing on Nacua and Davante Adams in key spots. Williams isn’t getting double-covered in these conditions, and if the Rams create house for him with their route distribution, it is virtually not possible for the defender to be right.
On this play, Williams launched upfield and headed towards the finish zone. The finish man on the line was security Julian Love, who regarded like he was beat shortly by Williams whereas making an attempt to drop into protection, however edge rusher DeMarcus Lawrence additionally dropped off and ran with Williams, taking away the fast throwing lane for Stafford, who needed to work elsewhere. The veteran ultimately pressured a throw to Terrance Ferguson in opposition to tight protection from Devon Witherspoon, with the move falling incomplete. Fortuitous protection bust? Or did Mike Macdonald acknowledge McVay’s tendency of making house for Williams in key spots and double the right man at the right time? Ultimately, it does not matter; the Rams failed on a key fourth down, and they by no means got here near taking the lead once more.
There was one other issue that hasn’t usually been an issue in 2025. McVay has massively improved his recreation administration and fourth-down decision-making this season after lagging behind the remainder of the league for most of his tenure as a head coach. On Sunday, although, McVay made two apparent errors, and they could very effectively have modified the recreation.
Late in the third quarter, the Rams obtained an enormous break courtesy of Seahawks nook Riq Woolen, who dropped a decide, was then flagged for taunting to present the Rams a primary down, and then instantly allowed a protracted landing move to Nacua on the subsequent play. While the Rams have been maybe nonetheless emotionally recovering on the sideline from Woolen’s vicious taunting, McVay made a easy mistake.
The landing put the Rams down 5 at 31-26, pending the further level. McVay kicked. There’s not an enormous win likelihood swing by kicking there, given how a lot time was left, however ESPN’s win likelihood mannequin means that groups ought to go for two in that state of affairs if they’ve even a 33% probability of changing. The Rams, with a traditionally environment friendly dashing assault, actually would belief their probabilities of changing at a better charge.
Coaches aren’t essentially fascinated by these endgame eventualities late in the third quarter, and there’s an outdated teaching trope about how groups should not go for two till the fourth quarter, even when the present rating suggests {that a} 2-pointer can be precious. It’s a type of numbers-based arguments that by no means appears to carry up beneath scrutiny. Conservative coaches and announcers typically justify taking the factors and kicking discipline targets early in video games through the use of the current rating and plugging in what a discipline purpose would do; certainly, we’ll speak in a minute about the Broncos, who have been speculated to take the factors and go up 10-0 to make the recreation a two-score contest in the second quarter.
0:16
Seahawks get vital fourth-down cease in purple zone
Devon Witherspoon breaks up Matthew Stafford’s move to Terrance Ferguson in the finish zone on fourth down.
Why ought to the current rating matter when you take the factors however not matter when you’re going for two? The advantages of going for two down 5 are apparent: You’d want a landing to win whether or not you are down 4 or 5, however when you get the 2-pointer, you would be down three and can tie the recreation with a discipline purpose. You would not know when you’ll want that 2-pointer, however you additionally do not know whether or not that discipline purpose to make it a two-possession recreation in the first half will find yourself being important by the finish of the day, both.
Computers can do a greater job of sorting by way of all the numerous eventualities of what number of possessions are left and how probably every staff is to attain upfront of a 2-point resolution like that, however the easiest argument is to behave on what the rating is right now. And after a 28-point third quarter, neither staff scored in the fourth, that means that the Rams actually did want that 2-pointer.
If the Rams had failed and stayed down 5, their endgame would not have modified. If that they had succeeded and been down three, in fact, the Rams might have kicked a discipline purpose to tie the recreation with 4:59 to go on fourth-and-4. Instead, down by 4 factors, that they had no selection however to strive scoring a landing.
The different mistake got here on the ensuing possession. While the refs dominated that Kupp’s catch on third-and-7 gave the Seahawks a primary down, the preliminary replays appeared to trace that the veteran wideout might need been simply wanting the sticks. McVay known as his second timeout, then had his problem flag in his hand, however he did not danger utilizing his closing timeout to problem the spot.
This was a transparent mistake. Given a good spot and the recreation state of affairs, McVay very clearly ought to have simply thrown the problem flag to have the spot reviewed versus calling a standard timeout. If the problem had failed, nothing would have modified: The Rams would have basically burned a timeout to cease the clock. And if the problem succeeded, in fact, the Rams would not have misplaced a timeout and might have used it to cease the clock upfront of a fourth-down resolution by Seattle.
Coaches do not need to waste challenges, however there was just about no draw back right here. The Rams have been a minute away from the two-minute warning, at which level all challenges come from the replay sales space. McVay had two challenges remaining. Unless he thought that the preliminary spot was dominated brief on the discipline, believed it was fourth down and used his timeout earlier than studying in any other case, this was a missed alternative.
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Rams’ botched punt return results in Seahawks TD
Xavier Smith muffs a punt for the Rams and Dareke Young recovers, establishing a Jake Bobo landing for the Seahawks on the subsequent play.
Those selections did not single-handedly resolve the recreation, however the Rams stacked some sloppy decision-making and work on the discipline. Stafford and the remainder of the offense could not overcome these errors.
Nobody mentioned it needed to be fairly. The most memorable recreation of the 2001 Patriots’ journey to the Super Bowl was their divisional-round win over the Raiders in Foxborough. While we name that the “Tuck Rule” recreation due to the fateful name that overturned a Tom Brady fumble, the most spectacular play from that matchup was Adam Vinatieri’s 45-yard discipline purpose in whiteout circumstances to tie the recreation with 27 seconds to go. The legendary kicker then hit a 23-yarder in time beyond regulation, sending the Pats to the AFC title recreation and ultimately to a shocking Super Bowl victory.
Sunday’s win over the Broncos will not be fairly as memorable. It was determined by a 23-yard discipline purpose from Andy Borregales, however that kick got here early in the third quarter and was the solely profitable check out of 5 makes an attempt by the two kickers on this recreation. Conditions have been superb throughout the first half, however by halfway by way of the third quarter, climate took over the contest and diminished the recreation to one thing out of the Seventies, each when it comes to play choice and video constancy.
The Broncos managed simply 32 yards and one first down over their 5 possessions in the second half. Jarrett Stidham obtained off to a stable begin, however after the first quarter, his 26 dropbacks produced simply 37 web yards. Denver’s greatest probability of scoring in the second half got here after a brutal 33-yard punt by Bryce Baringer, which handed the Broncos the ball in discipline purpose vary, solely for Wil Lutz’s 45-yard kick to be blocked.
Breaking information from Adam Schefter
Stidham made the recreation’s greatest mistake, although. Facing strain on a third-and-4, he drifted backward and tried to get outdoors the pocket to keep away from an intentional grounding penalty. Stidham tried to flip the ball out simply as he was hit by Christian Elliss. The play was initially dominated as grounding earlier than being reevaluated as a backward move and fumble. The Pats have been denied a defensive landing by the referees blowing the play useless, however Drake Maye ran a landing in from 6 yards out to tie the recreation at 7.
The Broncos will really feel like they missed a possibility. Maye and the Patriots’ offense did little on this recreation, struggling to constantly transfer the ball even earlier than the climate arrived. Just two of New England’s 12 drives yielded a couple of first down. Denver security Talanoa Hufanga dropped what would have been an interception on the Pats’ opening sequence of the recreation, with the Broncos fooling Maye in protection as the second-year star tried to throw a slant to Stefon Diggs.
If Stidham simply goes down for a innocent sack on that third-and-4 and the Broncos punt the ball away, they could have been OK. The climate might need stored the Patriots from having any probability of scoring in the fourth quarter.
Sean Payton was second-guessed throughout and after the recreation for deciding in opposition to kicking a discipline purpose to go up 10-0 early in the second quarter. With Denver dealing with a fourth-and-1 on New England’s 14-yard line, the ESPN Analytics mannequin was very snug with Payton’s resolution at the time. (Running the ball might need been preferable, although, to the Broncos placing the ball in the fingers of their backup quarterback.)
Payton might need needed to play for a low-scoring recreation if he knew the climate system was going to be as extreme because it was by the second half, however the method the recreation performed out is proof of how precious a landing may be on this kind of contest. If the Broncos kick a discipline purpose and nothing else modifications, the rating’s 10-10, and the recreation goes to time beyond regulation, the place they’ve a 50-50 shot of successful. If they convert and rating a landing and nothing else modifications, they win 14-10 and go to the Super Bowl. Given how little the Patriots have been capable of do on offense, 14 factors may very effectively have been insurmountable.
The different what-if can be extra painful, provided that the Broncos did not have Bo Nix on Sunday. Nix had his ups and downs this season, however he was basically a league-average starter for the second consecutive yr, and that is rather a lot higher than Stidham, who wasn’t capable of do a lot after the scripted performs ran out. He hit Marvin Mims Jr. with an amazing throw previous a flat-footed Christian Gonzalez for a 52-yard achieve to arrange Denver’s solely landing. But Stidham’s six different throws of 10 or extra yards downfield produced simply 6 yards.
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Drake Maye runs in for a Pats TD in the AFC Championship
Drake Maye calls his personal quantity to search out the finish zone and degree the rating for the Patriots in the AFC Championship.
Ending the yr with out Nix was clearly unfortunate, and the Broncos have been with out wideout Troy Franklin and misplaced fellow wideout Pat Bryant to an damage for the second consecutive week. But this was a comparatively wholesome staff in 2025, with Nix and security Brandon Jones (who was damage late in the yr) as the solely starters to complete the season on injured reserve. The Broncos have been additionally one in all the league’s oldest groups on a snap-weighted age foundation, and so whereas the Broncos do have some younger stars, Payton has relied on veterans and free agent additions to assist make them aggressive. That practically led them to a Super Bowl, however after going 9-2 in one-score video games and including a tenth shut win in opposition to the Bills final week, the Broncos weren’t capable of squeak out one other slim win at house in the AFC Championship Game.
Given these elements, it is powerful to think about them being again right here once more in 2026, though it is honest to say there weren’t many individuals who anticipated the Broncos to be internet hosting the Patriots on this recreation at the begin of the season, both.
As for the Patriots, effectively, they is likely to be much more tough to judge now than they have been earlier than the postseason. Before the playoffs, all people might agree that Maye was taking part in lights-out soccer and that the Pats had benefited from taking part in a straightforward schedule. They ultimately completed, per Pro-Football-Reference.com’s methodology, with the Tenth-easiest regular-season schedule for any staff since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger. The postseason was speculated to be a check of whether or not the Patriots have been for actual.
Winning means you move the check, in fact, nevertheless it’s not precisely taking place the method we’d have anticipated. Maye has struggled by way of a tough postseason, operating a 51.1 Total QBR, which was roughly about what Tyler Shough had throughout the common season. He has held on to the ball too lengthy, fumbled six instances and thrown two interceptions, though he was capable of make it by way of Sunday’s recreation with out turning the ball over.
Maye has made a handful of good throws throughout this run, together with a flea-flicker to Mack Hollins that served as his solely completion of greater than 10 yards on Sunday. He has additionally made an affect together with his legs, which was Maye’s major contribution in the Pat’s win over the Broncos. He turned 10 carries into 65 yards, together with a 6-yard landing and scrambles of 13, 16 and 28 yards, which arrange the game-winning discipline purpose and two Borregales misses. Maye sealed the AFC up by preserving the ball on a third-down bare bootleg and outrunning Jonah Elliss to the sideline for a primary down to finish the recreation. It wasn’t a memorable passing efficiency, however Maye nonetheless discovered a method so as to add significant worth on a day when the Pats could not do a lot on offense.
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And paradoxically sufficient, if Maye does find yourself successful the Super Bowl, it will go down as one in all the extra spectacular runs by way of defensive juggernauts by any quarterback in current reminiscence. By EPA per play rankings, Maye has already overwhelmed the third- (Texans), sixth- (Chargers) and seventh-best (Broncos) defenses in soccer. He’s about to face the greatest by this metric in the Seahawks in Super Bowl LX. I will not argue that he has been wherever close to as spectacular in the playoffs as he was throughout the common season, but when Maye wins in two weeks, there cannot be many quarterbacks who’ve overwhelmed 4 of the league’s prime seven defenses in a single postseason run.
Instead, the story of the playoffs for the Patriots has been their protection. While superior metrics have been nonetheless keen on Maye even after adjusting for high quality of opposition, the similar wasn’t true for the protection. New England’s protection completed the season twenty third in DVOA and 18th in ESPN’s Football Power Index. The Pats misplaced star defensive deal with Milton Williams to a midseason ankle damage earlier than returned in Week 18, however they weren’t rated as a top-10 unit even earlier than he went down.
Since the begin of the postseason, although, the Pats have suffocated opposing offenses. They’ve allowed a complete of 26 factors by way of three video games. With the offense struggling, Zak Kuhr’s protection has additionally confronted a ton of possessions, making that an much more spectacular determine. The Pats are permitting simply 0.72 factors per drive in the playoffs. Since 2000, the solely staff to play three postseason video games on their aspect of the bracket and permit fewer factors per drive is the 2000 Ravens, who have been one in all the most dominant defenses in NFL historical past.
Of course, as all the time with the 2025 Patriots, there are causes to be skeptical. Every staff the Pats have confronted was compromised by accidents. The Chargers have been down their prime two offensive tackles (Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater) and could not shield Justin Herbert. The Texans entered their divisional-round recreation with out Nico Collins and then misplaced Dalton Schultz in the first half, costing C.J. Stroud his prime two receivers. And the Broncos have been beginning Stidham, who hadn’t thrown an NFL move in two years, with a visit to the Super Bowl on the line. Throw in some messy climate to assist out the protection, and we will speak ourselves into the Pats’ protection being a mirage.
The reality is someplace in between. This unit was unfortunate when it comes to purple zone efficiency throughout the common season, rating fifth by EPA per play outdoors the purple zone and twenty eighth inside the 20. The Patriots actually did miss Williams, who had three of the staff’s 5 fast pressures on Sunday. K’Lavon Chaisson has had a profession yr, and he had a much-needed stable efficiency with Harold Landry III sidelined, however the power of the Pats’ move rush is the inside strain from Williams and Christian Barmore.
0:45
Christian Gonzalez will get huge INT late for Pats
Jarrett Stidham appears deep, however Christian Gonzalez comes away with the ball as the Patriots take over late in the AFC Championship.
Their different power is at cornerback, and that is the place the story may crystallize. When the Patriots signed Carlton Davis III this offseason in free company, it appeared they have been establishing a transparent plan of taking part in loads of man protection. The Pats had been one in all the league’s most man-heavy defenses beneath Bill Belichick and Jerod Mayo, and in Gonzalez, they already possessed one in all the league’s best younger cowl corners. Combining Gonzalez and Davis gave the Pats the freedom to do no matter they needed in protection.
During the common season, although, the Pats did not actually play a lot man, maybe to make life simpler for rookie security Craig Woodson. They have been in man protection simply 37.2% of the time, which ranked twenty third in the league. While Kuhr went to taking part in man greater than 50% of the time in the Pats’ Week 15 loss to the Bills, they have been usually a zone protection staff. That prolonged by way of the first two weeks of the postseason.
On Sunday, although, the Patriots performed man on 50% of Stidham’s dropbacks. They dominated Denver’s receivers in the course of. Stidham went 11-of-16 for 97 yards in opposition to zone appears, however the Broncos starter was 6-of-15 for simply 36 yards with a landing and an interception (by Gonzalez) in opposition to man protection. Getting into man appears allowed the Pats to blitz Stidham greater than 40% of the time, and he averaged simply 2.5 yards per move try in opposition to the blitz.
Were the Patriots prepared to lean into man protection solely due to the presence of Stidham and the dismal climate in Denver? Or was this an indication that they will be extra aggressive taking part in man in the Super Bowl? Belichick was famously insistent on stopping the opposing staff’s prime playmaker in huge video games. And whereas the Pats might strive sticking Gonzalez on Smith-Njigba, Belichick usually most well-liked to bracket or double-team the opposing staff’s star whereas sticking his greatest cowl nook on the opposing staff’s second-best wideout.
There’ll be loads of extra time to speak about that in subsequent week’s Super Bowl preview, however on Sunday, the Pats have been capable of get aggressive on protection and squeak out a detailed victory.
