The NFL playoffs’ conference championship spherical for the 2025 season has two nice matchups, and we now have you coated with what you want to know for both.
First, Patriots QB Drake Maye heads on the highway for the primary time within the playoffs to face a Broncos crew that can be with out QB Bo Nix (ankle) within the AFC title sport. And then the weekend caps off with an NFC West battle between the surging Rams and Seahawks for the possibility to go to the Super Bowl.
Our NFL Nation reporters take you contained in the locker room with the very best factor they heard this week, and analytics author Seth Walder gives a key stat to know for every matchup. NFL analyst Ben Solak additionally provides us bold predictions, and NFL analyst Matt Bowen identifies one matchup X issue to watch. Betting analyst Pam Maldonado picks out an intriguing guess in every of the video games, and workers author Kevin Seifert tells us what to know concerning the officiating. Plus, our Football Power Index (FPI) goes contained in the numbers with a sport projection, and 4 analysts — Eric Moody, Maldonado, Solak and Walder — give us closing rating picks for both video games.
Everything you need to know is right here in a single spot to make it easier to prepare for an additional weekend of NFL playoff soccer. Let’s get into the NFC and AFC championship video games.
Jump to a matchup:
NE-DEN | LAR-SEA
3 p.m. ET | CBS/Paramount+ | NE -5.5 (42.5 O/U)
What we’re listening to on the Patriots: Linebacker Robert Spillane, who’s the signal-caller for a protection that has surrendered just one landing in two playoff video games, stated dealing with Denver’s offense can be distinctive. “They do a great job with personnel packages, can align in a lot of funky formations and challenge your rules and schemes defensively. Lot of motions. Lot of ways to get people open. So we have to be really good with our matches, our locations in zone coverage and playing sound in the back end, especially this week.”
Meanwhile, QB Drake Maye has fumbled six occasions in two playoff video games. He stated he labored on higher ball safety in follow, which incorporates having a timer in his head to ensure that he is not holding on to the soccer too lengthy. — Mike Reiss
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What we’re listening to on the Broncos: Given QB Bo Nix will miss the rest of the postseason with a fractured proper ankle, it will likely be Jarrett Stidham underneath heart with the Super Bowl on the road. He will turn into the primary QB since Roger Staubach in 1972 to make his first begin of a season in a conference championship sport. Stidham, whom coach Sean Payton made one of many first free agent signings of his Denver tenure in 2023, has the backing of his teammates and a rugged Broncos protection. Look for him to be extra aggressive at occasions with a willingness to push the ball downfield. As Payton stated, “He’s going to rip it, and that’ll be our approach.” — Jeff Legwold
Stat to know: Denver’s protection permits 5.8 yards per carry towards duo runs, and New England runs duo 32% of the time (third most within the NFL). That’s a harsh disparity with the remainder of the Broncos’ rush protection, which has allowed 3.3 yards per carry towards all non-duo run varieties, the very best within the league. Was this merely variance displayed over 65 duo runs towards Denver this season? We’ll discover out. — Walder
Bold prediction: Christian Gonzalez, the Patriots’ CB1 and one of many 4 or 5 greatest corners in soccer, will get solely a fraction of the eye Denver’s Pat Surtain II does. But he’ll make a press release and snag a pick-six on Stidham en route to shutting Courtland Sutton down for the sport. — Solak
Matchup X issue: Broncos RB RJ Harvey. Look for Harvey to play an outlined function within the cross sport. This permits Stidham to take the out there throws beneath when Harvey releases out of the backfield, whereas Payton also can arrange his RB on display ideas. Harvey caught 5 passes for 46 yards within the divisional spherical win over Buffalo. — Bowen
One intriguing guess: Broncos +4.5 is a protection guess. The Broncos will squeeze within the purple zone, pressure area targets and flip drives into punts. The Patriots can nonetheless transfer the ball and win with out separation, the place each level can be hard-earned. — Maldonado
Officiating nugget: The Patriots and Broncos both superior to this sport partly due to drawing defensive cross interference penalties late of their divisional spherical victories. Referee Alex Kemp’s regular-season crew threw the seventh-most flags for defensive cross interference (1.1 per sport). — Seifert
Injuries: Patriots | Broncos
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Pats centered on ball safety for AFC title sport
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Maldonado’s decide: Patriots 24, Broncos 21
Moody’s decide: Patriots 23, Broncos 19
Solak’s decide: Patriots 27, Broncos 16
Walder’s decide: Patriots 23, Broncos 20
FPI prediction: NE, 59.1% (by a median of three.3 factors)
Matchup must-reads: Are QB Maye’s turnovers a difficulty for Patriots? … Broncos have full religion in backup QB Stidham … Broncos open follow window for RB Dobbins’ return
6:30 p.m. ET | Fox | SEA -2.5 (47.5 O/U)
What we’re listening to on the Rams: The Rams are searching for their third straight highway playoff win, which might be their longest streak in franchise historical past, in accordance to ESPN Research. They could be the sixth crew in NFL historical past to win three straight highway video games inside a postseason. “That’s just been the story of our year,” receiver Davante Adams stated. “I don’t think I would’ve drawn it up that way, but it’s worked out for us and it’s something that we found a way to just bond together and mend to a point where we don’t necessarily need to be at home in order to make it work.” — Sarah Barshop
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What we’re listening to on the Seahawks: If the primary two Seahawks-Rams matchups had been any indication, this sport will go down to the wire. The two groups couldn’t have regarded extra evenly matched as they break up their regular-season collection. Los Angeles, which received in Week 11 at SoFi Stadium, had 58 factors and 830 yards in these two video games mixed. Seattle, which prevailed in time beyond regulation at Lumen Field in Week 16, totaled 57 factors and 829 yards. “They’re a really good team,” Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald stated of the Rams. “They play hard. They play together. They’ve got really talented players. Got a great scheme. It’s just a great matchup. It’s right where we should be at this point of the year. It’s pretty cool.” — Brady Henderson
Stat to know: The Rams common 8.9 air yards per try, the best mark within the league. But the Seahawks’ protection permits a meager 4.7 air yards per try to opponents, the lowest amongst all defenses. The Rams may have their work minimize out for them towards Seattle’s protection (which additionally excels towards play-action, a Rams staple) as they struggle to discover some shot performs. — Walder
Bold prediction: Seahawks working again Kenneth Walker III, given the lion’s share of the carries with Zach Charbonnet (knee) out for the season, will set a season excessive in dashing yards but once more, clearing the 116 mark that he posted simply final weekend towards the 49ers. — Solak
Matchup X issue: Rams TE Colby Parkinson. In coach Sean McVay’s system, the boot ideas are a significant a part of the offensive sport plan. This season, quarterback Matthew Stafford had a league-high 74 makes an attempt on designed rollouts, which opens the door for TEs to see quantity within the cross sport. Parkinson has 90 receiving yards and a landing within the Rams’ two playoff wins. — Bowen
One intriguing guess: Over 46.5. Both offenses pressure quantity, both QBs lean on play-action, and both conferences this season produced massive surges. Even a clear protection can fold towards tempo, stress and particular groups volatility. One damaged play — short-field turnovers, blocked punts for touchdowns or defensive scores — swings this quantity. — Maldonado
Officiating nugget: The Rams (first) and Seahawks (eighth) had been two of the NFL’s least-penalized groups throughout the common season, and that has continued into the playoffs. The Seahawks had been penalized solely twice within the divisional spherical, and the Rams have had 11 flags in two postseason appearances. Referee Clay Martin’s regular-season crew threw the ninth-most flags per sport (14.4). — Seifert
Injuries: Rams | Seahawks
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Maldonado’s decide: Seahawks 25, Rams 24
Moody’s decide: Seahawks 26, Rams 23
Solak’s decide: Rams 23, Seahawks 17
Walder’s decide: Rams 20, Seahawks 17
FPI prediction: SEA, 53.9% (by a median of 1.6 factors)
Matchup must-reads: How Kupp and Adams have made Nacua a greater receiver … Can RB Walker III carry Seahawks after Charbonnet damage? … Can Darnold overcome his nemesis — the Rams — to get to Super Bowl?
