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Tim Bontemps
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Tim Bontemps
ESPN Senior Writer
- Tim Bontemps is a senior NBA author for ESPN.com who covers the league and what’s impacting it on and off the court docket, together with trade deadline intel, enlargement and his MVP Straw Polls. You can discover Tim alongside Brian Windhorst and Tim MacMahon on The Hoop Collective podcast.
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Brian Windhorst
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Brian Windhorst
ESPN Senior Writer
- ESPN.com NBA author since 2010
- Covered Cleveland Cavs for seven years
- Author of two books
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The NBA season is previous its midway level, with the trade deadline and All-Star Weekend quick approaching, however the Eastern Conference stays vast open and filled with questions.
But the state of affairs within the East hasn’t allowed the Milwaukee Bucks to stay in rivalry with Giannis Antetokounmpo. That’s why, as ESPN’s Shams Charania reported Wednesday, the 2 sides may very well be heading towards a divorce after greater than 12 seasons collectively. But above the Twelfth-place Bucks, a number of East groups will enter April with legit Finals aspirations.
After talking with league insiders all through this week, our newest journey across the NBA options an East reset. What lies forward for the Detroit Pistons, New York Knicks, Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers and different contenders? What are the instances for and towards every because the true convention favourite? And how might these franchises — and Milwaukee — assault the Thursday trade deadline?
“There are several teams who can make a case to themselves that they can win,” one longtime advance scout who focuses on the East mentioned. “But none of the cases are ironclad.”
First, what’s subsequent for Giannis and the Bucks?
While the race for prime contender within the East continues to be up for debate, the largest storyline within the convention — and the NBA — isn’t.
In conversations with sources across the league over the previous 48 hours, the widespread expectation is that the Giannis saga will drag out till at the very least Thursday. Then, Bucks common supervisor Jon Horst and his workers should determine whether or not to make a transfer now or wait till the offseason.
Three sources mentioned they count on the trade drama in Milwaukee to stretch into the summer time.
“I’m just not sure why it wouldn’t make sense to wait,” an East scout mentioned. “They can see where the draft [lottery] is, and survey their options then.”
But Milwaukee is taking calls, surveying the trade worth for its celebrity ahead in a means the franchise, as one supply mentioned, by no means has earlier than.
Giannis on the transfer?
Two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo is prepared for a brand new house forward of the Feb. 5 trade deadline as a number of groups have made aggressive gives to the Milwaukee Bucks, who’re beginning to hear, league sources instructed ESPN’s Shams Charania.
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Antetokounmpo’s calf harm might push Milwaukee to attend till the offseason. He is out at the very least a month due to a calf pressure, eradicating one argument for a deadline deal: the potential for Antetokounmpo to play the Bucks out of prime lottery place for his or her 2026 first-round decide. (That’s the identical motive, sources mentioned, that trade talks for the Mavericks’ Anthony Davis have cooled from a number of weeks in the past.)
As a consequence, the league — from groups already , such because the Golden State Warriors, Minnesota Timberwolves, Miami Heat and New York Knicks, to others that might doubtlessly be part of the fray for a top-five participant — will proceed to see what occurs earlier than the deadline.
As for the state of the East outdoors of Milwaukee, this is a take a look at the instances for and towards every contender to succeed in the Finals, beginning with the staff that has led the convention for months.
Detroit Pistons
The case for: Detroit is second within the league in defensive ranking (No. 1 since Dec. 1) and web ranking, behind the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder. Thanks to a 15-2 begin, Detroit has been the runaway chief atop the convention and presently enjoys a six-game benefit over the New York Knicks and Boston Celtics. Cade Cunningham has develop into a bona fide star and an MVP candidate, the chief of a tough-minded, bodily group with a transparent identification.
The case towards: Championship-level groups sometimes have two dependable perimeter playmaking choices. The previous few title groups, for instance, featured Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams; Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown; Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic; Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. Detroit has Cunningham and no different dependable scoring threats. Pistons coach J.B. Bickerstaff additionally has to point out that he can get his staff previous the second spherical of the playoffs. The Pistons have a younger roster that has but to win a playoff sequence. Can it go from that to successful three straight sequence? History would say in any other case. “It’s just hard to say Detroit [will make the Finals] until they prove it,” a Western Conference govt mentioned.
Trade deadline synopsis: The Pistons have continued to convey endurance, sources have reiterated, with the idea that Detroit is extra prone to be a facilitator on the deadline than pursue a seismic transfer to expedite the staff’s timeline. That outlook is comprehensible as a result of Detroit’s core hasn’t reached its prime, and large contract selections loom for Jalen Duren (restricted free company) and Ausar Thompson (extension talks) this summer time. There is, nevertheless, time to vary that stance and switch the younger Pistons into really prohibitive convention title favorites for the primary time in a technology.
Boston Celtics
The case for: Brown is taking part in at an All-NBA degree, Tatum has but to rule out a return this season from his Achilles tear and coach Joe Mazzulla has coaxed improvement out of Boston’s younger or unproven gamers (forwards Jordan Walsh and Hugo Gonzalez and facilities Neemias Queta and Luka Garza). As a consequence, the Celtics have the league’s No. 2 offense, the No. 12 protection and the No. 3 web ranking behind solely Oklahoma City and Detroit. “I don’t think they’re a title threat because the East isn’t good,” a West scout mentioned. “But I think they can win the East, for sure.”
The case towards: Despite surpassing many leaguewide expectations, the Celtics are nonetheless skinny. That’s what occurs when Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, Luke Kornet and Al Horford all go away in a single offseason with little in return. Counting on Tatum is not any positive factor, and people impactful younger gamers have but to show themselves within the postseason.
Trade deadline synopsis: Throughout his tenure as president of basketball operations, Brad Stevens has repeatedly discovered methods to enhance on the trade deadline — even when simply within the margins. Sources count on that to proceed. Guard Anfernee Simons, who has had spectacular moments for the Celtics however is on a $27 million expiring contract, can be the almost definitely candidate to be moved if Stevens makes a transfer that requires matching a bigger wage. And although sources suppose Boston would goal frontcourt dimension, big swings for stars reminiscent of Antetokounmpo or Memphis Grizzlies huge man Jaren Jackson Jr. appear unlikely.
New York Knicks
The case for: Raw expertise. The Knicks entered 2025-26 as convention co-favorites, they usually have spent chunks of the season wanting prefer it, together with a run to the NBA Cup title in December. Mikal Bridges, Josh Hart and OG Anunoby give New York the versatile and defensive wing core each Finals contender covets, and Jalen Brunson is a maestro with the ball in clutch time. New York has the No. 2 offense, carried by elite 3-point capturing numbers (fourth in makes, third in share).
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The case towards: The greatest wrongdoer is protection, which is 14th within the league however has repeatedly struggled over the previous few weeks, rating twenty eighth within the league throughout the staff’s 2-9 swoon earlier this month. The Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns pick-and-roll mixture is a defensive concern. The Knicks’ 116.9 defensive ranking when these two share the court docket is identical because the Twenty fourth-ranked Chicago Bulls this season. It would not assist that this staff can also be below as a lot, and certain extra, stress than any staff within the East to win this season, between firing coach Tom Thibodeau after final season’s convention finals breakthrough and proprietor James Dolan lately saying that New York “has to” make the Finals and “should” win them.
Trade deadline synopsis: The Knicks, as Charania has reported, have been interested by including Antetokounmpo because the summer time. The query is whether or not they have sufficient to get him. The finest path to a trade like that is draft capital, which New York hardly has accessible. The Knicks might ship a number of rotation gamers as an alternative, however that is not the premium worth Milwaukee is chasing in a possible Antetokounmpo deal.
Another resolution would require a 3rd staff to facilitate. Moving Anunoby might return the younger gamers and/or draft picks that Milwaukee covets. Anunoby has by no means been named an All-Star, however his acquisition may very well be just like what Derrick White — one other improbable two-way participant — supplied Boston after arriving from San Antonio. Similar to White, Anunoby may very well be the ending participant for a title contender and would drive loads of curiosity if he have been made accessible.
“Dolan said he thinks this is a championship team,” one West GM mentioned. “The front office has to decide whether they still believe that is true.”
Cleveland Cavaliers
The case for: Donovan Mitchell is having a profession season, and though it is comprehensible that he wasn’t named an All-Star starter as a result of Cleveland has underachieved within the first half, it isn’t honest. Mitchell has stuffed gaps all over the place, together with lately taking on place to begin guard duties as a result of Darius Garland is out. The Cavs may also be a powerful defensive staff in spurts, and their ceiling, which they’ve reached at occasions this season, is among the many league’s elite.
The case towards: They may by no means be absolutely wholesome. Garland has had issues with each huge toes, Evan Mobley has injured his left calf twice, Sam Merrill has sprained his proper capturing hand twice and Max Strus lately had his harm timeline prolonged as he recovers from a Jones fracture. Even when wholesome, the Cavs are small on the guard spots, and their defensive inside has struggled within the playoffs the previous three years in losses to the Knicks, Celtics and Indiana Pacers. That has contributed to their postseason disappointments, and there is not a lot proof they’ve modified that DNA.
Trade deadline synopsis: With only one assured yr remaining on Mitchell’s contract, the franchise is headed towards a deadly intestine examine second. Mitchell hasn’t hinted at something however contentment in Cleveland, and he has already signed one extension. Would that change after one other first- or second-round exit? Mitchell has by no means reached a convention finals in his eight-plus seasons. That is why sources across the league are intently monitoring Cleveland over the subsequent week and into the offseason.
“Cleveland is active [in trade talks],” one East govt mentioned. “We’re not sure what they’re trying to set up — and they may not be either — but they’re active.”
The case for: When Joel Embiid is true, few gamers are extra dominant offensively. The former MVP huge man is beginning to resemble that kind, creating a sense inside the franchise that the 76ers may very well be a risk within the playoffs. Tyrese Maxey, who was named an All-Star starter, continues to blossom right into a celebrity. Paul George has settled in as a 3rd or fourth choice, and rookie guard VJ Edgecombe resides as much as his billing because the No. 3 decide.
Breaking News from Shams Charania
The case towards: The harm threat is huge in Philly, and predicting the well being of Embiid and George, 35, into the spring is a idiot’s errand. The 76ers are additionally small throughout the rotation regardless of the 7-foot Embiid manning the center. George or Kelly Oubre Jr. will typically step right into a small-ball 4 position, whereas the gifted guard quartet of Maxey, Edgecombe, Quentin Grimes and Jared McCain is common top or shorter for his or her place.
Trade deadline synopsis: Sixers president of basketball operations Daryl Morey is the originator of the “5% rule,” which states that if in case you have at the very least that a lot of a title probability, you go for it. Though Morey has a storied historical past of massive swings — he traded for James Harden with two franchises — the sense from Philadelphia and across the league is that one other blockbuster is not probably. The 76ers are $7 million into the posh tax and have paths to get below the edge. Doing so would probably value a participant reminiscent of Oubre or Grimes, a transfer sources have mentioned the staff is not pursuing. Creating roster room to transform two-way gamers Dominick Barlow and Jabari Walker to plain offers might simply be Philly’s solely exercise between now and Thursday’s deadline.
More East groups with an opportunity
With so many questions dealing with the highest few East groups, a number of different franchises would argue they, too, have an opportunity to make a run. That’s very true if any of the subsequent three make a significant deadline transfer.
Toronto Raptors
Raptors followers will probably object to their staff on this group after what has been a terrific begin to the season. Despite a lopsided house loss to the Knicks on Wednesday, Toronto is fourth within the East standings due to the league’s No. 6 protection and a terrific all-around marketing campaign from Scottie Barnes and spectacular contributions from rookie Collin Murray-Boyles.
The loss to the Knicks, nevertheless, highlighted why this staff would not charge increased. Toronto, which is No. 21 on offense, is within the backside 10 within the league in 3-point makes, makes an attempt and share. It’s troublesome to contend within the fashionable NBA on such low quantity from past the arc.
Sources have predicted that Toronto can be aggressive, with heaps of long-term cash on the books and all of its future picks accessible to trade, giving it the power to shed onerous contracts and in addition add expertise to bolster a playoff run. Though Toronto had been seen as a distinguished suitor for Anthony Davis, the star ahead’s harm has probably eliminated that choice. It appears sure that Toronto will shave the roughly $1 million essential to get out of the posh tax, however the probability for an enormous swing may not current itself.
“There are only a few teams out there who have full control of their drafts,” one veteran East govt mentioned. “That makes [the Raptors] a buyer if they want. But when you look at their contracts [$165 million to their top five players next year], they’re going to need those picks.”
Miami Heat
Miami stays in its interval between the top of the Jimmy Butler III period and the subsequent stage of the franchise. The Heat are 18th in offense regardless of adopting a brand new free-flowing assault within the offseason, although it hasn’t helped that former All-Star Tyler Herro has performed simply 11 video games due to accidents. But whereas coach Erik Spoelstra stays arguably the sport’s finest tactician who will get essentially the most out of his gamers, it is troublesome to see one other Finals run till a real star is introduced in to pair with huge man Bam Adebayo.
Upcoming NBA video games on ESPN/ABC
Friday, Jan. 30 (ESPN)
Grizzlies at Pelicans, 7:30 p.m. ET
Pistons at Warriors, 10 p.m. ET
Saturday, Jan. 31 (ABC)
Mavericks at Rockets, 8:30 p.m. ET
Sunday, Feb. 1 (ESPN)
Bucks at Celtics, 3:30 p.m. ET
And that is the place Antetokounmpo’s future turns into an element. As Charania has reported, Miami is a powerful suitor for the two-time MVP ahead. Adebayo and Antetokounmpo share an agent in Octagon’s Alex Saratsis, and the Heat’s entrance workplace, led by Pat Riley and Andy Elisburg, has made extra star-level offers than any staff over the previous 30 years. The greatest problem this time round is Miami’s limitations of draft belongings and accessible younger gamers.
The Heat have simply two tradable first-round picks, Herro (a Milwaukee native), Kel’el Ware and Jaime Jaquez Jr., however not the premium trade bundle it might require to land Antetokounmpo. Don’t count on the entrance workplace to do a lot earlier than the deadline. It will both flip its consideration to the offseason if Antetokounmpo stays a Buck or put together for summer time 2027, when Miami might have substantial cap house.
Orlando Magic
Orlando was projected as an under-the-radar Finals risk after signing Paolo Banchero to a max extension and buying scoring guard Desmond Bane from Memphis for 4 first-round picks. But Orlando’s offense continues to be nineteenth within the league — if that holds, nevertheless, the Magic can be inside the highest 20 for the primary time in 15 years — with a protection that’s fifteenth after ending within the prime three every of the previous two seasons.
Sources throughout the league strongly imagine that Orlando, which is about $5 million into the posh tax, will make a transfer to get below. Moving on from guard Tyus Jones’ expiring $7 million deal would clear up that, however not the huge cash crunch coming subsequent season, when Banchero’s extension kicks in. (The Magic are already projected to be properly into the posh tax in 2026-27 with simply 10 gamers on the roster.) And if Orlando would not transfer on from Jonathan Isaac’s non-guaranteed deal, will probably be a second apron staff.
“Banchero is a physically gifted and highly talented player who doesn’t always make his team better, and it reminds you at times of Carmelo Anthony in that way,” one other West govt mentioned. “He’s young, and I’m sure they believe that he can mature into a player who does that. But I’d guess [Orlando] is concerned about having given him a full max with an opt out.”
Rival groups are watching to see if Orlando — both now or in the summertime — appears to shed some long-term cash, significantly as a result of the Magic will even be headed into extension talks with guard Anthony Black.
