Eric Karabell
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- Eric Karabell is a senior author for fantasy baseball, soccer and basketball at ESPN. Eric is a constitution member of FSWA Hall of Fame and writer of “The Best Philadelphia Sports Arguments”.
Each week within the NBA is its personal story — stuffed with surprises, each constructive and destructive — and fantasy basketball managers should determine what to consider and what to not consider shifting ahead. Perhaps we may help. If any of those ideas come true … do not be surprised.
Don’t be surprised if … Dallas Mavericks SF/PG/PF Cooper Flagg finishes as a top-25 fantasy possibility this season
Flagg averaged 23.5 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 4.8 APG and multiple steal, block and 3-pointer in December whereas capturing 51.6% from the sector and 80.8% from the road. Those are top-20 fantasy numbers, fairly simply. Nobody is averaging each a kind of numbers for the season. There are 25 gamers averaging 23.5 PPG per sport. Most of them are related in rebounds, 3-pointers and steals, however they do not do all this stuff persistently, together with hitting half their discipline purpose makes an attempt, both. They are all additionally significantly older than Flagg, who just lately turned 19.
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We can see inconsistency and passiveness on a game-by-game foundation, and that may be irritating for fantasy managers, and it sometimes seems that Flagg is extra snug mixing in on offense. He is not at all times assertive. That figures to vary within the second half of this season as a result of these Mavericks are usually not profitable the championship, and they won’t have C/PF Anthony Davis on the court docket. Flagg, who missed a pair of video games just lately with a left ankle sprain, scored a simple 18 factors at Madison Square Garden (in a win!) on Monday. His January numbers (scoring, primarily) don’t match his December ones, however we all know what he can obtain, and it’s exceptional.
I absolutely admit I used to be typically fading Flagg on draft day at an ESPN ADP of 25, as a result of, effectively, he was 18 years outdated, and it was asking a lot for him to be a top-25 statistical participant so rapidly. The Mavericks had a crew of massive males to deal with roughness and rebounding within the paint (Davis, Daniel Gafford, Dereck Lively II), and one presumed somebody the dimensions and ability stage of a typical NBA level guard would deal with that function (D’Angelo Russell, Brandon Williams, Ryan Nembhard) till Kyrie Irving (knee) returned to play. Today, Flagg is the large man and, at occasions, the facilitator of offense.
Flagg leads the 18-26 Mavericks in complete factors, rebounds, assists and steals, and he could achieve this in blocks, too. It is kind of secure to say Flagg is outperforming even the loftiest of expectations, even as a teenager, and he’s clearly a fantasy constructing block, not just for future seasons, however this one.
Fantasy managers did not precisely neglect about Green, however they may have. Green scored 2,600 fantasy factors for the Houston Rockets final season, a top-50 determine, and fantasy managers anticipated related manufacturing for Phoenix after the mammoth offseason Kevin Durant commerce. Instead, Green suffered a proper hamstring pressure in early October, missed the primary few weeks of the season, lastly debuted and in his second sport, he harm it worse. Green participated in solely his third sport of the season Tuesday, coming off the bench in a win over the Philadelphia 76ers. He scored 15 fantasy factors whereas coping with a minutes restriction.
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Jalen Green knocks down the 3-pointer
Jalen Green hits the triple vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Green won’t be coming off the bench for lengthy, and it’ll be fascinating to see how this modifications fantasy worth for different Suns. Green goes to play at the least half-hour per night time as a starter, he’ll see ample photographs, and he’ll be useful to fantasy managers. As of Wednesday morning, Green remained out there in 23% of ESPN normal leagues. He is not PG/SG Devin Booker, in fact, however there is no such thing as a manner overachieving Brooks (who shot 2-of-13 Tuesday) will proceed to earn 17 discipline purpose makes an attempt per sport, or he’ll rating 20 PPG. Surprise PG Collin Gillespie cannot hold averaging 32 fantasy factors, both. He figures to go to a reserve function.
While Green, the No. 2 decide within the 2021 draft, finally underachieved for fantasy throughout his Rockets days as a result of what he primarily did was hit 3-pointers and rating, he’ll be the No. 2 Suns participant from right here on out. It’s not like Brooks is doing a lot rebounding or passing, both. In reality, these gamers are fairly related in that respect. There are 42 gamers averaging 20 PPG; solely Brooks provides us fewer than 3.5 RPG and a couple of.0 APG. Green absolutely will carry out higher than that.
Other ideas
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I get why fantasy managers are including Golden State Warriors PF Jonathan Kuminga, as a result of he’s offensively expert and one would assume the staff should play him after the season-ending harm to SF/SG/PF Jimmy Butler III (knee). In reality, coach Steve Kerr performed Kuminga for 21 minutes in Tuesday’s blowout house loss to the Toronto Raptors. It was Kuminga’s first sport in additional than a month, and he scored 31 fantasy factors. Still, I do not assume the Warriors need Kuminga on the staff. I guess he’s on one other staff inside two weeks, and it is anybody’s guess if he supplies fantasy numbers there. I’m fading this example.
What considerations me extra concerning the Warriors shedding Butler — and any semblance of a robust protection, as was obvious Tuesday — is what occurs with PG Stephen Curry in March/April, as the staff clings to a Western Conference play-in spot however could view a spot within the lottery as extra attractive. Curry, who turns 38 in mid-March, could sit video games as a result of it’s within the staff’s finest curiosity (like Washington’s Trae Young, who could not play in any respect), and identical goes for PF/C Draymond Green, although he has by no means been much less useful for fantasy functions. Curry averages 44.2 fantasy factors, a top-20 determine. In a season with so many postseason accidents affecting the next season (Jayson Tatum, Tyrese Haliburton, and many others.), will the Warriors need Curry to swimsuit up commonly within the closing weeks?
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Desperate for rebounds in a tremendous deep dynasty roto league (thanks, injured Zach Edey and sporadic Andre Drummond), I turned to Mavericks rookie C Moussa Cisse and (*20*) Kings rookie C Dylan Cardwell. It is hardly splendid, however the energetic Cisse appears to be like nice, with 48 rebounds and 10 blocks over 5 video games, and Cardwell has his moments, too. This is a league with a FAAB finances, so there may be little threat in throwing a greenback on the market each Sunday night time for a younger participant that will make good, environment friendly use of minutes and be price counting on. I did this in latest seasons with Drummond and final yr with Charlotte Hornets C Moussa Diabate, and it labored. Diabate averages 8.4 RPG. Perhaps the Mavericks bury Cisse when Gafford (ankle) returns to well being, however they need to not.
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Orlando Magic PG/SG Anthony Black did not intrigue me a lot when he got here off the bench for the primary six weeks of the season. He averaged 12.8 PPG and three.1 APG in that function, capturing 45.8% from the sector and 68.4% from the road. Eh. Everything has modified now, and it’s stunning he stays out there in 35% of ESPN leagues. Black, now in his third NBA season after being the No. 6 decide in 2023, averages 18.7 PPG as a starter, and 5.0 APG. He shoots higher, too. Perhaps he simply did not like being a reserve? The most beautiful quantity is the 6-foot-7 Black averaging 6.4 APG in January, whereas additionally hitting 49.5% of discipline targets and 82.1% of free throws. This is a prime 30 fantasy producer over the previous 30 days.
