Elon Musk, the richest man on earth, is excellent at earning money. His observe report of predicting the longer term is much less stellar.
Through the years, Musk has made a number of outlandish forecasts—about self-driving vehicles, about house exploration, about mind chips, about robotics—that haven’t panned out. The Tesla CEO and former steward of the so-called Department of Government Efficiency appears at least a bit self-aware. During a shock look and his debut at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Thursday, he concluded with one thing like a mission assertion: “Generally, for quality of life, it’s better to err on the side of being an optimist and wrong than a pessimist and right.”
Still, when one’s corporations have their arms in so many industries—autos and robotics (Tesla), house journey and telecommunications (SpaceX), social media (X), synthetic intelligence (xAI), infrastructure (the Boring Company), and neurotechnology (Neuralink)—even off-the-cuff predictions can transfer world markets. Here are just a few prognostications Musk made on Thursday:
Aliens Don’t Exist (Probably)
Elon Musk opened his Davos remarks—in a dialog with good friend and BlackRock CEO Larry Fink—with a dialogue of his values, and some jokes about aliens. “We have 9,000 satellites up there, and not once have we had to maneuver around an alien spaceship,” Musk mentioned. “We need to assume that life and consciousness are extremely rare and it might only be us.”
Humanoid Robots Will Transform Human Life—and Go on Sale in 2027
Musk began making guarantees about Optimus, the corporate’s humanoid robotic, in 2021. Most not too long ago, he mentioned Tesla—now rebranded as a robotics and autonomy firm—would make 1000’s of Optimus robots in 2025. But the corporate is reportedly nonetheless struggling to get Optimus’ hand to work. That didn’t cease Musk from repeating in Davos some of his most far-reaching claims about the way in which the product would change human life endlessly.
“If we have ubiquitous AI that is essentially free, or close to it, and ubiquitous robotics, you will have an explosion, an expansion of the global economy that is truly beyond all precedent,” Musk mentioned. What does that imply for you? Billions of robots powered by synthetic intelligence will outnumber people and “saturate all human needs,” he mentioned. “You won’t be able to think of something to ask the robot for at a certain point, there will be such an abundance of goods and services.”
But first, of course, Tesla must begin promoting Optimus, which Musk mentioned would occur late subsequent 12 months.
Robotaxis Will Be “Very Widespread” within the US by 2027
In 2025, after years of self-driving guarantees, Tesla lastly launched a restricted robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, albeit with a human security monitor sitting in every passenger seat. That didn’t cease Musk from asserting that the majority of the US inhabitants would have entry to robotaxis by the top of that 12 months.
Now, in 2026, Musk is shifting the goalposts once more. He mentioned Thursday that his firm’s robotaxis can be “very widespread by the end of this year in the US.” If historical past is a information, that received’t occur—however the firm is engaged on launching robotaxi service in a handful of states with laxer laws, together with Arizona, Florida, and Nevada.
Human Aging Is a “Very Solvable Problem”
Musk acknowledged that he hasn’t spent a lot time investigating human getting old. But he predicted that there can be an answer. “When we find what causes aging, we’ll find it’s incredibly obvious,” he mentioned. Get to it, Silicon Valley friends.
SpaceX Will Complete a Fully Reusable Rocket This Year
SpaceX has been engaged on its reusable rocket platform Starship for a decade, and in these years, it has missed a number of of Musk’s massive house deadlines. He predicted in 2020 {that a} crewed Mars mission would launch by 2024. He mentioned that Starship would attain orbit by 2022, although the corporate didn’t pull it off till final 12 months.
At Davos, Musk repeated a promise from final 12 months: that Starship can be totally reusable by the top of this 12 months, reducing house journey prices by “a factor of 100” and finally permitting house freight to compete with airplane freight costs. SpaceX has run profitable take a look at flights not too long ago, however a totally reusable rocket by the top of this 12 months could possibly be a stretch.
AI Will Become Smarter Than a Human This Year—and Smarter Than All of Humanity in 2035
Musk has been each deeply concerned in AI’s improvement and deeply doomer-y about its that means for years. (See: his ongoing lawsuits in opposition to OpenAI, its founders, and Microsoft.) In Davos, Musk as soon as once more talked about his want to keep away from a Terminator-like future. But he additionally indicated that it’s coming. “The rate at which AI is progressing, I think we have AI that is smarter than any human this year, and no later than next year,” he mentioned. By 2035, will probably be “smarter than all of humanity, collectively.”
Per typical, whether or not Musk will get this one proper comes all the way down to definitions. What does “smarter” imply? This month, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang mentioned he didn’t consider researchers had been wherever near creating what he referred to as “God AI.” The expertise is nice at discrete duties, however doing all the things? “That ‘someday’ is probably on biblical scales, on galactic scales,” Huang mentioned.
