No Bo Nix, no problem: Broncos can win AFC Championship thanks to this one, historically lopsided matchup

The Broncos are handing the keys from Bo Nix to Jarrett Stidham on Sunday within the AFC Championship sport vs. the Patriots. He would be the first quarterback ever to enter a convention championship begin with zero move makes an attempt on the season. Confidence in Denver is understandably fading as they’re on monitor to be the most important house underdog ever in an AFC or NFC title sport (5.5-point underdogs at DraftKings as of Wednesday night time). 

Not all is misplaced, although. The Broncos have a really clear (albeit slim) path to victory. Sack Drake Maye a ton and do not cough the ball up 1,000,000 occasions like C.J. Stroud.

Patriots vs. Broncos AFC Championship preview: These X elements may decide who advances to Super Bowl LX

Tyler Sullivan

Their historic move rush should dominate a Patriots offensive line that’s common at finest and has been flat-out inept by way of two playoff video games. The matchup is one sided sufficient to give Denver a preventing likelihood and it is really the largest mismatch within the trenches in NFL historical past by one measure. 

The Patriots have allowed 58 sacks and the Broncos’ protection has racked up 71 sacks this season, together with the playoffs. That’s the best mixed whole by any group and their opponent coming into a sport in NFL postseason historical past (129). The earlier excessive was 128 between the 1985 Bears protection (70 sacks) and the Rams (58 sacks allowed). All that the Bears’ protection did was shut out the Rams, pressure three turnovers and maintain the Rams to 130 yards of offense. 

Most occasions sacked + opponent sacks coming into a playoff sport 

The Broncos protection is not the 1985 Bears, however this is a story as previous as time. An important move rush can subdue a fantastic quarterback. There was an analogous mismatch in Super Bowl LVI when the Rams’ move rush was sufficient to beat Joe Burrow and his susceptible offensive line. Von Miller, Aaron Donald and firm shut Cincinnati down on the ultimate drive to protect the win. The Eagles destroyed Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offensive line within the Super Bowl final 12 months, and so they did it with out blitzing. The Giants used this blueprint to beat Tom Brady in two Super Bowls. The Broncos did this the final time they confronted the Patriots within the playoffs, too. Brady was pressured 24 occasions, hit a document 16 occasions and was sacked 4 occasions within the 2015 AFC title sport. The Broncos gained by two factors thanks to a dominant effort from Von Miller (2.5 sacks, 4 QB hits, one interception) and have been ready to overcome an OK efficiency from Peyton Manning, who had 9 landing passes and 17 interceptions throughout the common season.

Drake Maye can have his fingers full with this Broncos move rush

This Broncos group can observe an analogous playbook. Drake Maye has been sacked 10 occasions this postseason and has fumbled six occasions, probably the most by any participant within the first two video games of a postseason on document. 

The Patriots’ safety was improved for a lot of the 12 months, nevertheless it’s fallen off since rookie first-round decide Will Campbell returned in Week 18 from a knee harm. Campbell has allowed three sacks this postseason, probably the most within the NFL, and eight pressures. He was victimized by Khalil Mack and Odafe Oweh within the wild card spherical and Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter within the divisional spherical. 

If anybody can wreck a sport, it is in opposition to the Patriots. There have been two gamers with no less than three sacks and a number of pressured fumbles in a playoff sport this century. Odafe Oweh two weeks in the past and Will Anderson Jr. final week. Both in opposition to the Patriots. New England by some means gained these video games. They are already the one group in NFL historical past to win twice in a postseason whereas permitting 5 sacks in a sport. I’m undecided that components will work a 3rd time.

Nik Bonitto ranked third within the NFL in strain price this 12 months (19.1%) behind Anderson Jr. and Micah Parsons. He’s able to making a couple of game-changing performs, as is Zach Allen, the Broncos’ inside presence, who is 2 hits shy of breaking JJ Watt’s single-season document for quarterback hits in a season (51, together with playoffs). 

It’s going to be fascinating to watch what the Patriots discovered from their first two playoff video games. The inner clock wants to be faster for Maye so long as Campbell is struggling to shield his blindside. Anderson had an unbelievable get off on this strip sack in opposition to Maye final week:

You can count on extra of the identical in Denver. Bonitto had the second-fastest get off within the NFL this 12 months and teammate Jonathon Cooper is ranked fourth, per NFL Pro Insights. Who ranked first, you ask? Myles Garrett, who had a franchise-record 5.0 sacks vs. the Patriots earlier this season. 

If Broncos do not get house, then Maye will take benefit

On the flip facet, if the Broncos can’t exploit this historic mismatch, they’re doomed. They want to get a whole lot of sacks. Pressure will not be ok alone as a result of Maye has change into probably the greatest off-schedule passers within the NFL. He averaged the second-most yards per dropback vs. strain this 12 months (5.5), and that is with the 57 sacks in opposition to him baked into the equation. If there’s strain in his face, however he is not sacked, his common rises to an astronomical 8.6 yards per try. To put that in perspective, the best yards per try mark by any quarterback not named Drake Maye this 12 months, in all conditions (strain or not) was Sam Darnold at 8.5. Pressure does not part Maye. You want to get house. 

Performance with strain this season (together with playoffs)

Vance Joseph’s protection blitzes at one of many highest charges within the league, which may make them susceptible to areas the place Maye thrives if they are not ready to get him on the bottom. Maye leads the NFL in nearly each class beneath the solar when he faces additional move rushers this 12 months. He has 17 landing passes and no interceptions when blitzed this season, probably the most TD passes and not using a decide by any quarterback in these conditions within the final decade. Not even Patrick Mahomes, a infamous blitz shredder, has had a mark like that.

Maye’s efficiency in opposition to strain and his deep ball are the 2 greatest causes for his MVP leap this 12 months and they’re his ticket to a Super Bowl. The Broncos have a no-fly zone within the secondary and have not allowed a deep completion in over a month, together with limiting Josh Allen to 0-for-8 passing on throws 20+ air yards final week. That was the worst 0-for in deep balls by any QB in a playoff sport since Tom Brady’s Super Bowl defeat vs. the Giants 18 years in the past, which ended the Patriots’ undefeated season. Still, when the Patriots afford Maye time to throw in opposition to Denver’s move rush, I like Maye’s probabilities in this energy vs. energy matchup. Maye had the third most completions on deep balls this season (38) and his arm was alive and nicely final week in opposition to the Texans. 

Credit Kayshon Boutte on final week’s highlight-reel catch. It’s additionally a preview of what is going to occur in Denver if Maye is given time to throw. He has 12 landing passes this 12 months on throws no less than 15 yards downfield and out of doors the numbers this 12 months, probably the most by any participant since Joe Burrow in 2021, when his deep dimes to Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins propelled Cincinnati to the Super Bowl.

The Broncos will reside and die by their move rush and its skill to sack Maye in a lopsided matchup on Sunday. But hey, any path to victory is an effective one whenever you’re beginning a quarterback who has the identical variety of move makes an attempt this season as I’ve.