While 2025 was ostensibly an off 12 months for elections, the 12 months proved to be full of fascinating and essential contests, marked by one unmistakable pattern: Democratic candidates constantly overperformed, racking up a number of special-election victories that left Republicans feeling anxious about their electoral prospects.
The query hanging overhead was whether or not the pattern would proceed in 2026. That reply is already coming into focus.
Last week, Democrats received lopsided victories in two particular elections in Minnesota, restoring the state’s House of Representatives to a fair partisan cut up. The Democratic candidates, operating in Democratic strongholds, prevailed by margins of 95% and 91%, respectively. The outcomes didn’t generate a lot of consideration, nevertheless, for good causes: One of the candidates ran unopposed, and the opposite confronted token opposition. Though turnout was moderately sturdy, the races weren’t a credible take a look at of the prevailing political winds.
There was far better curiosity, nevertheless, in a state Senate particular election in the suburbs of Fort Worth, Texas. A New York Times report famous final week that Republican officers apprehensive “that even a narrow G.O.P. victory … could be a bad sign for their midterm prospects.”
The outcomes had been far from a slim GOP victory. MS NOW reported:
Democrats flipped a seat in the Texas Senate on Saturday when Democrat Taylor Rehmet received 57% of the vote in a particular election for state Senate District 9.
Rehmet, a union chief and Air Force veteran, received the seat for the Fort Worth-area district in opposition to Republican candidate Leigh Wambsganss.
On paper, this end result appeared wholly implausible. Donald Trump received this district by 17 factors in the 2024 elections; Wambsganss closely outspent Rehmet; the district hasn’t been aggressive in three a long time; and state GOP leaders akin to Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick went all out to assist carry Wambsganss throughout the end line in one of many nation’s largest Republican counties.
The Democratic candidate received by double digits anyway.
G. Elliott Morris, the previous director of knowledge analytics at FiveThirtyEight, famous, “This swing of 32 points from Trump’s 2024 performance is the largest Democratic overperformance in a competitive special election since Trump took office.”
The end result was clearly a tough one for Wambsganss, the chief communications officer for Patriot Mobile, which describes itself as “America’s ONLY Christian conservative wireless provider.” But the outcomes had been additionally particularly brutal for Donald Trump — although he was keen to faux in any other case.
Reporter: A Democrat received a particular election in Texas in an space that you just received by 17 factorsTrump: I’m not concerned in that. That’s a native race. I don’t know something about it. I had nothing to do with it.
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During a temporary Q&A with the press at Mar-a-Lago on Sunday, a reporter requested the president for his response to the Democratic victory in the Texas race.
“I don’t know. I didn’t hear about it,” he replied. “Somebody ran where?” Reminded of the related particulars, Trump added, “I’m not involved with that. That’s a local Texas race.”
Literally someday earlier, the president printed the newest in a sequence of messages to his social media platform that learn, “Today is the day! To all Voters in Texas’ 9th State Senate District: GET OUT AND VOTE for a phenomenal Candidate, Leigh Wambsganss. She is a highly successful Entrepreneur, and an incredible supporter of our Movement to, MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN. You can win this Election for Leigh, who has my Complete and Total Endorsement. POLLS CLOSE AT 7 P.M. GET OUT AND VOTE FOR LEIGH WAMBSGANSS! … Leigh will NEVER let Texas, or the USA, down!”
The day earlier than that, he additionally reminded native voters that he thought-about Wambsganss be “a GREAT Candidate” who loved his “Complete and Total Endorsement.”
On Saturday night time, Wambsganss misplaced by 14 factors. On noon Sunday, Trump stated of the race, “Somebody ran where?” including, “I’m not involved with that.”
He was most undoubtedly concerned with that.
Republican incumbents and candidates relying on the president’s assist to assist make a distinction ought to in all probability maintain all of this in thoughts in the approaching months.
Steve Benen
Steve Benen is a producer for “The Rachel Maddow Show,” the editor of MaddowWeblog and an MS NOW political contributor. He’s additionally the bestselling creator of “Ministry of Truth: Democracy, Reality, and the Republicans’ War on the Recent Past.”
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- As Dems flip a red district in Texas, Trump tries to distance himself from his own failure
