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As the U.S. navy strikes 1000’s of ISIS detainees throughout the border into Iraq, Washington is successfully closing the door on the Kurdish period of counter-terrorism and trusting {that a} unified Syrian state — as soon as its adversary — can now maintain the road in opposition to a swelling rebel menace.
The switch is meant to forestall mass breakouts from services long term by Kurdish Syrian Defense Forces now that Syria’s new authorities has taken management in northeastern Syria.
The shift carries penalties for Washington past the rapid struggle in opposition to ISIS. A breakdown in detainee dealing with or safety in the course of the transition would undermine claims of a sturdy ISIS defeat — a milestone President Donald Trump declared in 2019 after U.S.-backed forces dismantled the group’s territorial caliphate.
Iraqi intelligence officers are warning that ISIS might once more discover house to function amid Syria’s political and safety transition, citing inside assessments that put the group’s energy as excessive as 10,000 fighters. United Nations estimates place the quantity far decrease — about 3,000 Islamic State members throughout Syria and Iraq as of August 2025 — underscoring the uncertainty U.S. planners face as detention techniques fracture, custody shifts throughout borders, and regional authority is quickly reconfigured.
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Hamid al-Shatri, head of Iraqi intelligence, informed The Washington Post just lately that ISIS had grown from roughly 2,000 fighters to as many as 10,000 fighters in simply over a yr.
“This certainly does pose a danger to Iraq, because ISIS — whether it’s in Syria or Iraq or anywhere in the world — is one organization, and it will certainly try and find ground once more in order to launch attacks,” al-Shatri mentioned.
Syrian safety forces elevated safety measures at Al-Hawl refugee camp. (Santiago Montag/Anadolu through Getty Image)
Brian Carter, a Middle East analyst on the Washington, D.C., free-market American Enterprise Institute assume tank, cautioned that Iraqi assessments must be seen in context, noting that Baghdad has lengthy harbored deep issues about Syria’s new management and its Islamist roots — elements that may form how Iraqi officers assess the menace emanating from throughout the border.
Trump declared the U.S. had defeated ISIS in 2019 after U.S.-backed forces dismantled the group’s territorial caliphate. Since then, the group has partially reconstituted as an rebel community, sustaining sleeper cells throughout the area.
Fox News Digital reached out to the White House for remark and has but to obtain a reply
That persistence was underscored Dec. 13, 2025, when an ISIS-affiliated gunman killed U.S. National Guard Sgts. Edgar Brian Torres-Tovar and William Nathaniel Howard in Palmyra, Syria — the primary U.S. fight deaths in Syria because the 2024 transition.
The assault prompted a U.S. navy response identified as Operation Hawkeye Strike, a collection of airstrikes concentrating on greater than 100 ISIS infrastructure websites days later. U.S. officers, together with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, described the mission as aimed toward “eliminating ISIS fighters,” signaling a extra aggressive posture as Syria’s panorama fractured.
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For years, the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) guarded roughly 10,000 ISIS detainees in Syria. But that system is now breaking down.
Following the Jan. 18, 14-point settlement brokered by U.S. envoy Tom Barrack, the SDF is being built-in “individually” into the Syrian National Army. This has compelled a fast reorganization of safety tasks.
The collapse of Kurdish autonomy has instantly affected detention operations. Syrian authorities forces have taken over main websites, together with Shaddadi Prison and Panorama Prison, each of which noticed intense preventing Jan. 19 throughout Operation Hawkeye Strike. U.S. navy officers have framed the next detainee transfers as a important effort to forestall a broader safety failure.
“We are closely coordinating with regional partners, including the Iraqi government,” mentioned Adm. Brad Cooper, commander of U.S. Central Command, following the Jan. 21 switch of the primary 150 high-risk fighters to Iraq. “Facilitating the orderly and secure transfer of ISIS detainees is critical to preventing a breakout that would pose a direct threat to the United States.”
Analysts say one of the delicate challenges dealing with Syria’s new authorities is that not everybody held in ISIS detention services is definitely an ISIS fighter. Years of mass arrests, shifting entrance traces and inconsistent record-keeping have left authorities with incomplete information on who was detained for terrorism and who was swept up for political or safety causes.
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While as much as 7,000 detainees are slated for switch, the scenario stays risky. Syrian authorities just lately accomplished a takeover of the al-Hol camp, which homes 24,000 individuals.
Kurdish-led forces mentioned they withdrew from the camp amid “international indifference,” leaving Syrian authorities to handle a inhabitants analysts warn might complicate launch selections throughout a fragile transition.
“There’s always a risk when you’re moving large numbers of people in a hurry,” mentioned Daniel Byman, a senior fellow on the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Byman mentioned the hazard lies not in ISIS’s present energy, however within the circumstances surrounding a safety transition.
“These groups are weak, right? So this isn’t 2015,” he mentioned. “But chaos is good for ISIS.”
Analysts say one of the delicate challenges dealing with Syria’s new authorities is that not everybody held in ISIS detention services is definitely an ISIS fighter. (Spencer Platt/Getty Images)
Carter warned that if a ceasefire between SDF and Syrian authorities forces doesn’t maintain, ISIS may match to use the preventing.
Byman warned that durations of declining native authority — marked by fewer troops and fractured management — traditionally create openings.
“If there are fewer troops around, it’s easier for a relatively small group to survive and maybe even grow,” he mentioned.
The U.S. at the moment has round 900 troops in Syria, and is within the strategy of withdrawing all troops from Iraq by the tip of the yr.
“There’s going to be a window of opportunity for ISIS as the Syrian government regains control,” Carter mentioned, warning that safety forces distracted by inside reorganization might wrestle to take care of stress.
But, “I think it’s actually a net positive for the United States,” Carter added. “It puts these detainees in a country that has shown an ability to prosecute them.”
Carter famous that Iraq’s purpose-built prisons are higher positioned than the customarily improvised SDF websites.
Syrian safety forces stand guard outdoors a Syrian jail. (Karam al-Masri/Reuters)
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As duty for monitoring ISIS fighters turns into more and more diffuse, analysts say the result will rely upon whether or not regional governments can handle detainees and shut gaps throughout this fast political transition.
“When you’re saying, ‘we don’t care about your region,’ your ability to coordinate your allies declines,” Byman warned.
