Bill Connelly
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- Bill Connelly is a author for ESPN. He covers faculty soccer, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.
One cycle ends, the subsequent one begins. The circle of life and whatnot. With the 2025 faculty soccer season in the books, we now transfer on to 2026. Mark Schlabach’s Way-Too-Early Top 25 is out, so it is time for the subsequent step in the predictions course of: Let’s speak about who will make the College Football Playoff.
Granted, we extremely do not know for positive what subsequent yr’s CFP will appear to be for positive — hey, you possibly can’t rush these items, we would want solely one other three or 4 years of debates in fancy lodge ballrooms earlier than reaching an apparent reply. Since, nevertheless, a 12-team playoff has turned out to be loads of enjoyable, we stick to 12 for some time longer. If we merely used Schlabach’s rankings for this train, we would be taking a look at a 12-team subject resembling this:
Editor’s Picks
2 Related
First spherical
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9 Ole Miss at 8 Miami (winner performs 1 Indiana)
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12 ???* at 5 Oregon (winner performs 4 Georgia)
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11 BYU at 6 Ohio State (winner performs 3 Notre Dame)
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10 Texas A&M at 7 Texas Tech (winner performs 2 Texas)
(* There was no Group of 5 consultant in Schlabach’s record as, between the teaching carousel and the expertise drain that’s the switch portal, there is no apparent standout in the pool.)
In phrases of expectations, that is a superbly sound place to start out. But this sport likes to scoff at best-laid plans generally — simply ask Texas (No. 2 on Schlabach’s record final January), Penn State (No. 3), Clemson (No. 7), LSU (No. 8) and South Carolina (No. 10). We get loads of issues proper, however this sport nonetheless units us as much as whiff rather a lot. Keeping expectations in thoughts, then, let’s speak about how this race will actually go. Each convention title race brings sure guidelines to the desk; for that matter, so do the battles for at-large bids and the Group of 5 auto-bid.
So here is what we will do: Instead of merely taking a look at “Who are the best teams on paper?” we will create some guidelines, some old-school heuristics, to information us by means of exactly how this CFP race will play out. I loved this train final yr; positive, it appropriately predicted solely 4 of 12 playoff groups, however hey, utilizing the Way-Too-Early predicted solely three! This stuff is tough! And final yr’s guidelines do not even have to alter that a lot.
Big Ten champion
The rule: It might be gained by the greatest group not named Ohio State.
We’ll begin with the convention that has produced the previous three national champions. Ohio State gained the national title in 2024 and spent most of 2025 at No. 1, however the Buckeyes extremely have not gained a convention title since 2020 (after they gained their fourth in a row). Michigan managed to get its nostril in entrance and win three straight (2021-23), and whereas the Wolverines faltered in 2024, they nonetheless saved Ohio State out of the title recreation with a late-season upset. And in 2025, it was Indiana’s flip to surpass faculty soccer’s most constantly robust program.
Because I do not choose in opposition to a streak, as an example we’re taking a look at a sixth straight non-Buckeyes champ in 2026. Per Schlabach, the almost certainly title candidates are No. 1 Indiana and No. 5 Oregon, with a drop all the way down to No. 13 USC, No. 16 Iowa, No. 18 Michigan and No. 19 Washington. Oregon needs to be dynamite, I’m truthfully very inquisitive about USC, and Iowa was a sequence of gut-wrenching shut losses from a powerful season. But we will maintain issues easy right here.
The choose: Indiana. I’m attempting this new factor the place I do not underestimate Indiana, so let’s go together with the Hoosiers. We do not but know the place faculty soccer’s best turnaround story will finish, and Curt Cignetti has already landed his subsequent set of key veteran transfers in guys corresponding to quarterback Josh Hoover (TCU), working again Turbo Richard (Boston College) and receiver Nick Marsh (Michigan State). Let’s say for now that IU’s run continues.
SEC champion
The rule: It needs to be gained by both Kirby Smart (2017, 2022, 2024, 2025) or a coach who has proved he can beat Kirby Smart (2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2023).
This was the rule final yr, and Smart’s Georgia backed it up with a 3rd title in 4 seasons. With as a lot as faculty soccer may need modified lately, the Bulldogs stay the ultimate boss in the Southeastern Conference, and it has proved very troublesome to knock them off their perch.
With Nick Saban now two seasons into retirement, there aren’t many SEC head coaches who’ve proved they’ll take down the huge unhealthy group from Athens. In reality, there are solely three: Ole Miss’ Pete Golding (whose Rebels gained an exhilarating 2025 CFP quarterfinal), Alabama’s Kalen DeBoer (who has all kinds of holes to fill in Tuscaloosa however has overwhelmed Georgia twice in three tries) and, after all, LSU’s Lane Kiffin (whose Ole Miss group beat the Dawgs in 2024).
Georgia and Texas may once more resolve the SEC in 2026. Jeffrey Vest/Icon Sportswire by way of Getty Images
Texas is likely to be No. 2 in the Way-Too-Early, however Steve Sarkisian continues to be attempting to determine clear the Georgia hurdle. The solely semi-cohesive logic I can pull from his rent of defensive coordinator Will Muschamp is Muschamp’s information of Georgia’s interior workings (he has spent the previous 5 seasons fulfilling varied roles in Athens); it could actually’t be his monitor document, as he hasn’t produced an elite protection as a solo coordinator since 2009. The world has modified only a bit since then. For now, the Longhorns are ineligible, and the solely groups that may win the convention are due to this fact Way-Too-Early No. 4 Georgia, No. 9 Ole Miss, No. 15 LSU or No. 21 Bama.
The choose: Georgia. Though I’ve fairly just a few questions on the Dawgs’ offensive upside in 2026, I’ve only a few questions on a protection that shifted right into a uncommon gear late in 2025 — CFP loss apart — and returns burgeoning stars corresponding to linebackers Chris Cole and Raylen Wilson and nook Ellis Robinson IV. Their ceiling stays excessive, and a Smart group will at all times know brawl. We’ll say the Dawgs win a 3rd straight title.
Big 12 champion
The rule: Either flip the shut video games round … or go together with the cash.
I used to be each proper and incorrect about the Big 12 in final yr’s CFP projections. On one hand, I nailed Utah’s turnaround — the Utes had fallen to 5-7 in 2024 due to a pointy downturn in close-game outcomes (they misplaced 5 video games by a complete of 23 factors), and so they certainly turned that again round. The Big 12 enjoys a stage of roster parity few others can match, and it is troublesome to win (or lose) all of your shut video games two years in a row. I believed Utah would have an awesome yr, and that is what occurred.
Another factor additionally occurred, nevertheless: Texas Tech whipped out the proverbial checkbook and spent huge to construct a implausible roster. Thanks partly to 2025 newcomers corresponding to edge rushers David Bailey and Romello Height and cornerback Brice Pollock, the Red Raiders surged to the high of the Big 12 pile, bettering slightly on offense and a ton on protection. And their 2026 switch class seems to be awfully thrilling, too — sufficient so that they are No. 7 in the Way-Too-Early regardless of shedding loads of 2025’s greatest gamers.
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In 2026, then, it may be Tech versus the better of the close-game turnaround groups. And two groups stand out in that pack. Kansas State went 2-5 in one-score finishes in 2025, 1-4 in Big 12 play, and between shut losses and all the new calls for of recent roster administration, head coach Chris Klieman retired and was changed by up-and-comer (and former Okay-State quarterback) Collin Klein. His first Wildcats roster will look awfully totally different, with over 30 gamers transferring out and 25 coming in (thus far), however he did maintain onto hot-and-cold quarterback Avery Johnson.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma State went 0-4 in one-score finishes and 0-3 in convention play, and it turned what was destined to be a nasty season into a very terrible one. The Cowboys went 1-11, despatched Mike Gundy out to pasture, and introduced in Eric Morris (who, in flip, introduced in loads of his current North Texas stars).
The choose: Texas Tech. Another predictable choose. The Red Raiders are a far safer choose than both Okay-State or OSU, and after the stage of domination they confirmed in 2025 (common rating of Tech’s Big 12 contests: Tech 38, opponent 11) we’ll journey the scorching hand. I do determine their protection takes a step backward, however the signing of quarterback Brendan Sorsby (Cincinnati), the addition of receivers corresponding to Malcolm Simmons (Auburn) and Donte Lee Jr. (Liberty) and the return of a pair of robust working backs (Cameron Dickey and J’Koby Williams) may be certain that offensive enchancment offsets any defensive regression.
ACC champion
The rule: It needs to be gained by both Clemson (2011, 2015-20, 2022, 2024) or a group that beat Clemson in the common season (2012-14, 2021, 2023, 2025).
This was final season’s rule, and because of the funky tiebreakers that put Duke in the ACC championship recreation (which the Blue Devils gained over Virginia), we get to maintain it for 2026 though Clemson’s general place inside the ACC seems to be awfully shaky at the second following the Tigers’ worst season since 2010. Therefore, of the 17 groups in the ACC, solely 9 are eligible for the crown: Clemson, Clemson’s 4 2026 residence opponents (Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, Virginia Tech) and Clemson’s 4 away opponents (Cal, Duke, Florida State, Syracuse).
The ACC has three groups ranked on the Way-Too-Early record — No. 8 Miami, No. 14 Louisville, No. 17 SMU — and just one performs Clemson. So this one’s fairly simple, huh?
The choose: Miami. The Hurricanes lose fairly just a few difference-makers, however with working again Mark Fletcher Jr. and receiver Malachi Toney returning and, presumably, Duke’s Darian Mensah taking on at QB (although that might get awfully messy), the defending national runners-up are nonetheless comfortably the ACC’s most confirmed amount heading into 2026. The ACC is changing into fairly adept at throwing surprises our means — SMU reached the CFP in its first season in the league in 2024, and Duke’s title final yr definitely defied many strands of logic — however we all know who the high canine is to start out.
(Of course, an alternate rule may win the day in 2026: It’s an even-numbered yr, and due to this fact Clemson will win the league. The Tigers did so in 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2024, in spite of everything. And it will be similar to Dabo Swinney’s delinquent squad to do the deed a yr after falling aside beneath large expectations.)
Best Group of 6 champion
The rule: The greatest group to schedule a number of power-conference opponents wins.
Granted, the phrase “schedule” is vital right here — Boise State technically scheduled a number of power-conference opponents when it added Washington State and Oregon State to its nonconference docket (which already included Oregon) for 2024, even when the Cougars and Beavers have been power-conference cast-offs by the time these video games formally occurred.
I’ve just about given up on the committee method for figuring out CFP rankings at this level. The CFP committee’s job is to craft a high 25 every week, however at this level it clearly thinks its job is to handcraft an artisanal record of playoff groups as a substitute. Miami obtained into the CFP as a result of there wasn’t a group separating the Hurricanes from Notre Dame on the record, and due to this fact their head-to-head win over the Irish instantly carried triple the weight that it will have had BYU or Alabama been separating the two in the rankings; that is insanity. So is the undeniable fact that the committee so completely makes use of the “Ain’t played nobody” rule to find out its Group of 5 consultant.
It’s fairly exhausting for mid-major program to schedule power-conference opponents — these energy groups are in all probability on the lookout for a win, in spite of everything — and it may get even trickier with the SEC and ACC (form of) transferring to nine-game convention schedules. There are actually fewer whole slots accessible, and there is even much less motivation to schedule a troublesome mid-major recreation. But the committee will nonetheless clearly favor the groups that managed to snag a type of contests.
Oumi/Getty Images
James Madison was fairly a bit higher than Tulane on paper in 2025: The Dukes completed the yr twenty seventh in each SP+ and the FPI, whereas the Green Wave have been merely forty fifth and 54th, respectively, and JMU had fewer regular-season losses, too. But Tulane was at all times going to rank forward of JMU as a result of the Green Wave had gone 2-1 in opposition to power-conference groups whereas the Dukes had gone 0-1. Granted, JMU obtained in anyway due to Duke’s shock ACC title, and whereas neither shined in the CFP, the Dukes nonetheless confirmed extra of a pulse in opposition to Oregon (they misplaced 51-34) than Tulane did in opposition to Ole Miss (41-10).
It’s clear that the edge for touchdown the Group of 6’s assured playoff bid — and sure, it is now the Group of 6, with the Pac-12 fleshing out its roster — will go to the groups which have managed to schedule nicely. By my rely, 14 G6 packages have at the least two power-conference opponents lined up for 2026, and maybe not surprisingly, most of these groups have been fairly unhealthy final season.
Only 5 of the 14 completed .500 or higher: 11-3 Tulane (2026 opponents: Duke and Kansas State), 9-4 Hawai’i (Stanford and Arizona State), 7-6 Georgia Southern (Clemson and Houston), 7-6 Washington State (Washington, Kansas State and Arizona) and 7-7 Miami-Ohio (Pittsburgh and Cincinnati). As a lot as I’d like to make the case for a playoff push from, say, 5-7 Kent State (South Carolina and Ohio State) or 4-8 Tulsa (Oklahoma State and Arkansas), we should always in all probability keep on with semi-known portions and provides the choose to one among the 5 first rate groups.
The choose: Hawai’i. Surprise! Picking Tulane would have been too simple — plus, I did not essentially love the faculty’s new head teaching rent Will Hall — so let’s go together with some new blood. Timmy Chang’s Rainbow Warriors started and ended the 2025 season with wins over power-conference opponents (even when they have been simply Stanford and Cal), and Hawai’i was awfully enjoyable to look at. Granted, it misplaced star receiver Jackson Harris (LSU) and dynamite punter Billy Gowers (Indiana) to the portal, however coordinator Dennis Thurman’s protection was the higher unit in 2025, and if quarterback Micah Alejado can stay wholesome (he missed two video games and performed damage in others), he is a firecracker. So we’ll say Hawai’i beats Stanford and Arizona State, wins the new-look Mountain West and turns into a playoff success story.
At-large bids
We want two guidelines to account for the CFP’s seven at-large bids.
Rule No. 1: Six groups from the Way-Too-Early Top 25.
Exactly six of seven at-larges have been accounted for in Schlabach’s record in each 2024 and 2025. (The 2025 record: Ohio State, Oregon, Alabama, Texas A&M, Miami and Ole Miss.) We’ve already handed auto-bids to a couple of 2026’s high groups — No. 1 Indiana, No. 4 Georgia, No. 7 Texas Tech and No. 8 Miami — however that leaves us a fairly large record from which to decide on six groups.
The picks:
Notre Dame. I used to be aggravated that the Fighting Irish have been disregarded of the 2025 CFP, each due to the logic concerned — see the “physical separation” dialog above — and since I believed they have been adequate to win the national title. They lose key gamers like everybody else, together with star working backs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price and receiver Malachi Fields, an enormous difference-maker in 2025. But the protection seems loaded, quarterback CJ Carr was dynamite for a lot of the season and, nicely, Notre Dame at all times has good working backs.
Throw in the gross new “Notre Dame is automatically in with a top-12 ranking” rule and a a lot simpler early-season schedule and you’ve got perhaps the single almost certainly CFP group of 2026.
Oregon. As with Georgia, the Ducks’ protection thrived forward of schedule, with a fairly younger core, in 2025. I used to be skeptical of the addition of switch quarterback Dylan Raiola (Nebraska), however with the introduced return of quarterback Dante Moore and a superb crop of 2025 freshmen, the Ducks needs to be loaded as soon as extra. No one’s a positive factor in faculty soccer now, however Dan Lanning’s group is very shut, even when it nonetheless wants to deal with that “getting blown out by the eventual national champion in the CFP each year” factor.
Ohio State. OK, perhaps Ohio State is a positive factor. The Buckeyes could not shift their offense out of Caution Mode when it counted in 2025, and it was pricey. And although Ryan Day made what turned out to be a superb new defensive coordinator rent in Matt Patricia a yr in the past, he has an equally vital rent to make on offense in the coming days or even weeks. But it doesn’t matter what, the Buckeyes will nonetheless have receiver Jeremiah Smith catching passes from Julian Sayin, with working again Bo Jackson — who improved considerably all through his freshman yr — in the backfield. There won’t be a greater start line for any roster in the sport.
Ohio State is the most constant factor in the sport, so it isn’t a stretch to see it in the bracket. Imagn Images
Texas. I used to be skeptical of the Longhorns, or at the least their credentials for being the preseason No. 1 group, heading into 2025, and that skepticism proved warranted, as quarterback Arch Manning — the least-proven preseason Heisman favourite ever — had classes to be taught and each an unproven receiving corps and rebuilt strains struggled at instances. But even when they’re ineligible for the SEC title due to the Kirby Smart rule, it is exhausting to not acknowledge that (A) Manning was No. 1 in QBR from Nov. 1 onward and (B) Texas nonetheless gained 10 video games and went 3-2 in opposition to the ultimate SP+ high 15. Even with Sarkisian taking an enormous attain together with his defensive coordinator rent, this can be a extra confirmed group heading into 2026.
Texas A&M. Just as I used to be skeptical of Texas, I used to be larger than most on Texas A&M, so let’s journey that for one more season. Mike Elko’s Aggies fell aside offensively late in the yr, which turned an 11-0 begin into an 0-2 end, and so they’ll have to interchange star go rusher Cashius Howell. But the return of veteran quarterback Marcel Reed and underrated star receiver Mario Craver, together with a portal-fortified offensive line and loads of stellar defensive choices, ought to guarantee a fairly excessive stage of play once more in College Station. The SEC is not loaded with positive issues heading into 2026, however A&M has a lot to supply.
USC. Heading into 2025, it appeared that, receiver Makai Lemon apart, most of USC’s greatest gamers could be scheduled to return in 2026. “Steel yourself for some serious USC hype this time next year, I guess,” I wrote in final summer season’s Big Ten preview. The lack of Lemon and defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn maybe softened a few of that potential hype, as did the undeniable fact that they underachieved late in 2025 and missed out on a 10-win season.
But Lincoln Riley signed ESPN’s No. 1 2026 recruiting class so as to add to a roster that returns quarterback Jayden Maiava, two robust working backs and a splendidly skilled offensive line. There are at all times justifiable questions on Riley’s protection, and the convention schedule options Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon, Washington and Penn State, so if you wish to stay a USC skeptic, it is warranted. But life’s about taking dangers, proper? Fight on.
Rule No. 2: A group that had a shedding document final season.
We have to avoid wasting room for some nonsense. The 2024 CFP featured an Indiana group that had gone 3-9 the season earlier than. The 2025 CFP featured Oklahoma, which had managed only a 6-7 document in its first SEC marketing campaign. Virginia additionally almost made it after three straight shedding seasons.
Granted, I threw a North Carolina Hail Mary in final yr’s CFP projections, and that got here up only a wee bit quick, however somebody bizarre will in all probability thrive, and there aren’t many apparent candidates. What’s your taste: Florida (4-8 in 2025), Auburn (5-7) or South Carolina (4-8) from the SEC? Wisconsin (4-8) or, I do not know, Maryland (4-8) from the Big Ten? Florida State (5-7) or Virginia Tech (3-9) from the ACC? Baylor (5-7) or Kansas (5-7) from the Big 12?
None of the above. If we’re getting bizarre, let’s get actually bizarre.
The choose: Oklahoma State. Hear me out! Were the Cowboys abjectly hopeless in 2025? Absolutely. They plummeted to 1-11 with what was, per SP+, their worst group since 1963 (and so they had some awfully unhealthy groups in the Nineteen Nineties). But they made a doubtlessly dynamite rent in Eric Morris — one among my favourite hires of the cycle — and he has principally imported his dynamite North Texas offense, bringing in 17 former Mean Green gamers together with stars in QB Drew Mestemaker, RB Caleb Hawkins and WR Wyatt Young. OSU will rating loads of factors in 2026, and if the Cowboys’ close-games luck flips as nicely, they could possibly be an enormous turnaround story.
Huge sufficient to make the CFP? Almost definitely not. But I’m going to attach on one among these outlandish picks sooner or later, and I’m going to be so unbearable about it when that occurs.
Notre Dame profitable could be the Irish’s first title since 1988. Jeffrey Brown/Icon Sportswire by way of Getty Images
The CFP for the 2026 season
So now we have our CFP subject for 2026. Aiming for the most aesthetically pleasing pairings doable, we’ll say the seedings line up like this:
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Indiana
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Georgia
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Texas Tech
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Notre Dame
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USC
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Texas A&M
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Ohio State
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Miami
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Oregon
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Texas
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Oklahoma State
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Hawai’i
First-round matchups
9 Oregon at 8 Miami (winner performs 1 Indiana). The Mario Cristobowl, with a built-in 2025 CFP rematch in the quarterfinals.
12 Hawai’i at 5 USC (winner performs 4 Notre Dame). Micah Alejado vs. Jayden Maiava is sort of the tantalizing matchup, and this manner we perhaps nonetheless drive the faculty soccer universe to provide us a USC-Notre Dame recreation.
11 Oklahoma State at 6 Texas A&M (winner performs 3 Texas Tech). The New and Old Big 12 portion of the draw.
10 Texas at 7 Ohio State (winner performs 2 Georgia). We get yet one more Texas-Ohio State recreation (to go together with the 2024 semifinals and 2025-26 home-and-home sequence), plus both one other Sark vs. Smart recreation or a rematch of the fabulous 2022 Georgia-OSU semifinal in the quarters.
Predictions
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First spherical: Oregon over Miami, USC over Hawaii, A&M over Oklahoma State and Texas over Ohio State.
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Quarterfinals: Oregon over Indiana (revenge!), Notre Dame over USC, Texas Tech over Texas A&M, Georgia over Texas.
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Semifinals: Notre Dame over Oregon, Georgia over Texas Tech.
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Finals: Notre Dame over Georgia.
I by no means know which groups I believe the highest of till I drive myself to make some predictions. Apparently 2026 is Notre Dame’s yr. You heard it right here first. The Irish seem loaded on paper, and whoever beats Oregon in the CFP has to win the entire factor. It’s the rule at this level.
