In 2021 and 2022, the world’s financial restoration after the COVID-19 pandemic coincided with sharp cuts in pipeline fuel deliveries from Russia to Europe, sending spot costs for liquefied pure fuel (LNG) surging. The LNG market advanced from an period of undersupply and elevated costs to a extra balanced part in 2023 and 2024 as further manufacturing—notably from the United States—turned accessible and demand softened in key areas. For occasion, in Europe, milder winters and efforts to curb pure fuel consumption led to declining fuel imports. With provide normalizing and volatility easing, a new wave of capability is now anticipated to enter the market from Qatar and the United States, and shifting geopolitical and commerce circumstances are set to remake international energy flows.
To find out how LNG consumers are reacting to those strikes, McKinsey surveyed 41 consumers throughout essential international markets in the biennial LNG Buyers’ Survey in July 2025 this yr (see sidebar, “About the survey”). The consumers’ responses reveal their views on future fuel demand, danger administration, and market alternatives. In a international energy market dealing with potential worth volatility, provide chain challenges, and appreciable uncertainty, the survey finds that LNG consumers are prioritizing flexibility, together with diversifying provide and ranging contract phrases. This article examines latest tendencies in consumers’ procurement methods and identifies alternatives for suppliers to proactively handle LNG consumers’ evolving priorities and desires.
A brand new wave of provide may stabilize costs and increase latent demand
Global LNG demand is predicted to proceed rising, notably in Asia, spurred by ongoing regional financial progress and urbanization, the survey finds. At the identical time, European consumers anticipate a gradual decline in LNG demand by a minimum of 2040 as renewable infrastructure expands throughout the area, displacing gas-fired-energy manufacturing. As further fuel capability comes on-line, particularly in North America and the Middle East, LNG consumers world wide anticipate that the tightness of the availability market will ease. About 60 p.c of respondents anticipate costs to stabilize at $7 to $10 per a million British thermal items (MMBTU) by 2030. At these costs, latent demand would seemingly materialize, particularly in Asia. Chinese consumers—which exhibit the best worth sensitivity—report that they might swap from coal to LNG when the costs are equal, at round $8 per MMBTU.
Buyers in different main Asian markets, together with Japan and South Korea, additionally anticipate a potential improve in demand in response to decrease costs, though the broader ranges of volumes that they report counsel better uncertainty. Meanwhile, consumers in the remainder of the world, together with in Europe, imagine that LNG demand can be much less delicate to decrease costs. In Europe, this most likely displays consumers’ expectations of declines in long-term regional LNG demand.
Apart from regional dynamics, LNG merchants and portfolio gamers anticipate substantial latent demand, which seemingly displays their international view emphasizing long-term progress of LNG and diversified LNG provide.
Supply diversification is the first lever to derisk geopolitics
As geopolitical pressures reshape international energy flows, LNG consumers report specializing in diversifying provide sources, together with capping volumes from any single provider, as their prime technique for mitigating danger. Buyers additionally report a marginal choice for utilizing lower-risk suppliers, reminiscent of these positioned in resource-rich international locations with steady transport routes. Notably, European consumers specific a stronger choice for this technique than others do: 30 p.c prioritize lower-risk sources, in contrast with the worldwide common of 25 p.c.
One-fifth of worldwide LNG consumers prioritize LNG contracts that include provisions for revising or terminating LNG agreements, in keeping with outcomes from 2023. European consumers present a larger choice for such provisions in comparison with Chinese friends. In addition, whereas solely 15 p.c of LNG consumers handle danger by selecting new suppliers, Chinese consumers present a larger choice for this method. Of these surveyed, solely Asian consumers report utilizing further methods for managing geopolitical danger, together with sourcing from trusted portfolio gamers and reserving higher-risk suppliers for a restricted variety of spot purchases.
Buyers search to safe further contracts in the following two to a few years
About 70 p.c of worldwide LNG consumers intend to safe each short- and long-term contracts throughout the subsequent two to a few years. While the worldwide share of consumers contemplating long-term contracts is in keeping with the 2023 findings, consumers’ willingness to safe short-term contracts has elevated practically 20 proportion factors since then. Buyers in some areas of the Asia–Pacific area present a substantial curiosity in short-term contracts: 77 p.c of respondents there intend to pursue this feature, a rise of practically 40 proportion factors since 2023.
At 83 p.c of respondents, Chinese consumers exhibit the strongest intention to safe long-term contracts, a 16-percentage-point improve from two years in the past. Other main importing markets in Asia, reminiscent of Japan and South Korea, additionally strongly favor long-term contracts, at 78 p.c. This marks a flip from 2023, when 86 p.c of those respondents most well-liked short-term contracts and 57 p.c had been contemplating long-term ones. European consumers have maintained a regular choice for long-term contracts since 2023.
Flexibility leads the listing of contract priorities
LNG consumers are more and more prioritizing flexibility to navigate an unsure market; versatile locations and buy volumes are their prime priorities when evaluating contracts. The distribution of responses is analogous throughout areas, with consumers typically assigning constant rankings. The exception is China, the place LNG consumers establish pricing flexibility because the primary precedence and place better emphasis on versatile cost phrases in contrast with consumers in different areas. Asian consumers present extra curiosity than their friends in funding partnership alternatives (reminiscent of joint ventures to develop new infrastructure) and in LNG that’s specified as wealthy and top quality and thus has an elevated heating worth to allow enhanced energy supply.
In 2025, European LNG consumers place much less emphasis on sustainability components—together with low-emission LNG; decarbonization options, reminiscent of utilizing clear energy throughout fuel manufacturing; transparency with emission knowledge; and licensed low-emission fuel—in contrast with their priorities two years earlier. Their choice for funding partnerships, nonetheless, has elevated since 2023. This may create alternatives for suppliers to interact in joint ventures and fairness partnerships with consumers throughout the LNG worth chain to strengthen long-term relationships and steady provide.
Results from the 2025 LNG Buyers’ Survey spotlight a pivotal shift in international procurement methods that’s pushed by an more and more balanced market, evolving geopolitical dynamics, and regional variations in demand. Buyers are responding to those adjustments by prioritizing flexibility in contract phrases and provide sources, actively managing danger by diversification, and adopting a mixture of short- and long-term agreements. As new provide enters the market and costs stabilize, these adaptive approaches place LNG consumers to capitalize on rising alternatives whereas remaining resilient amid ongoing uncertainty in the worldwide energy panorama. For suppliers’ half, those who tailor their choices to consumers’ wants are in the perfect place to ascertain strategic partnerships and obtain long-term progress.
